Straw polls don't usually yield a lot of useful information. Like straw men, they are constructs often intended to distract; they are not scientific surveys, the sample size generally isn't statistically valid, and so on.
But sometimes they can reveal a trend. At CPAC 2025, one of the events was the CPAC straw poll, the results of which were released on the last day. The poll asked, among other things, who the attendees favored for the Republican 2028 presidential nomination. This poll is interesting because of the respondents; CPAC attendees are conservative activists, committed, involved, and informed, and they represent probably the most likely cohort of people to vote in Republican primaries and in general elections.
The CPAC 2025 straw poll for the 2028 presidential election was a blowout. The overwhelming favorite: Vice President JD Vance.
Sixty-one percent of CPAC’s 1,022 attendees said they would support Vance as the future GOP standard bearer. Twelve percent said they would support Trump’s former adviser and right-wing media personality Steve Bannon, while seven percent said the same about Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R).
Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump’s UN ambassador nominee Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) each received three percent support. Donald Trump Jr., Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and Vivek Ramaswamy, who is expected to launch a gubernatorial bid in Ohio next week, all got two percent support.
This shouldn't come as any surprise. For one thing, unless he just plain doesn't want the job, a sitting vice president always has a big advantage when the big chair is being vacated. Primary voters already know him (or her) and there is a track record to examine.
But in this case, there is another fact: JD Vance is a rock star. The VP opened CPAC 2025, and in his remarks, one of the most compelling moments was his advice for young men.
Charlie Kirk's post reads in full:
Vice President JD Vance has a powerful message for young men
“My message to young men is don’t allow this broken culture to send you a message that you’re a bad person because you’re a man, because you like to tell a joke, because you like to have a beer with your friends, or because you’re competitive.
Our culture “wants to turn everybody, whether male or female, into androgynous idiots who think the same, talk the same, and act the same.”
“We actually think God made male and female for a purpose, and we want you guys to thrive as young men, and as young women. And we’re going to help with our public policy to make it possible to do that.”
He spoke on immigration, on the role of the federal government; he can and does speak well on a wide variety of topics.
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The vice president has a compelling life story; he's very intelligent, well-spoken, and occasionally drops an off-color remark but to many people that just makes him more relatable. He has achieved a great deal while still being quite young, and he still takes pride in his hillbilly background.
Should he run, he'd be a strong candidate.
There were some also-rans:
Arkansas Gov. Sarah Sanders (R), Florida Sen. Rick Scott (R ), Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Trump’s former GOP presidential primary rival Nikki Haley all received one percent support. Four percent said they were undecided.
It's doubtful any of these people are running.
2028 is a way off yet. Anything could happen between now and then. But now, almost four years out, it looks like JD Vance is the guy to beat.