We are now one week into early in-person voting in Virginia and we're finally getting enough data to see patterns emerging. So far, things are looking decent for Republicans. (And, let's face it, "decent for Republicans" is about as good as you're going to get in Virginia.)
As RedState has been reporting, Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, the current lieutenant governor, is taking on Democrat Abigail Spanberger in the race to see who will be Virginia's first female governor. Spanberger had enjoyed a double-digit lead over the summer, but things have been tightening up recently as she has repeatedly botched her answers on whether or not she supports boys' participating in girls' sports and biological males using female bathrooms and locker rooms.
Abigail Spanberger's Brutal Botch on Trans Bathroom Policies
Virginia is a tough state/commonwealth for Republicans due to the left-leaning population centers in Northern Virginia (NoVA), Richmond, and the Tidewater area. NoVA is especially challenging due to the high concentration of federal workers living there; it's also home to some of the most repugnant Democrat activists, like the one who showed up to an Earle-Sears speech with a sign reading, "Hey Winsome, if trans can't share your bathroom, then blacks can't share my water fountain."
To win Virginia, Republicans need an aggressive and efficient Get Out the Vote effort in the red parts of the state (of which there are many). And that means pushing hard to get conservatives to take part in early in-person voting, something the GOP has embraced in recent election cycles.
The early voting numbers seem to show it's working so far.
Compared to this time last year during the presidential race, GOP voters are casting their ballots early and in greater numbers. This is significant because off-year elections like this one tend to have poorer turnouts. Admittedly, it's only a slight increase over 2024, but it's trending the right way, and even small jumps in red district turnout could turn the tide for the GOP.
A different early-voting model also has good news for Earle-Sears and Republicans: she has a 1% lead over Spanberger.
VIRGINIA - EARLY VOTING
09/26
Almost 150,000 ballots have now been cast in this election, that would make up around 5% of my expected total votes. Already 6% of the 2024 early votes have been cast and we are just a week into early voting.
Republican @winwithwinsome appears to have taken a 1% lead over @SpanbergerForVA according to my model.
What to make of this trend?
It could very well be The Charlie Kirk Effect, with conservatives, independents and even Democrat-aligned voters who are disgusted by their party's reaction to Kirk's death showing up to vote for civility and common sense. Kirk was scheduled to bring his college campus tour to Virginia Tech earlier this week; Megyn Kelly took his place, and thousands of students and community members showed up.
It could also be that the GOP's early voting push is bearing fruit.
Then again, it could be that Abigail Spanberger is a cowardly and deeply flawed candidate who's prone to incite "rage" amongst her supporters, even after the world witnessed a crazed leftist lunatic commit a public political assassination. This kind of rage-baiting disgusts average Americans, but some of the more weak-minded among us are answering the call for rage. On Thursday, a man was arrested for making a death threat against Delegate Kim Taylor, a Republican who won her seat in deep-blue Petersburg, Virginia.
A source familiar with the situation told Fox News Digital the suspect claimed Taylor was "ruining the country" while also appearing to reference Republicans writ-large.
The words of Abigail Spanberger to her supporters—"Let your rage fuel you!"—are deeply irresponsible and corrosive.
Spanberger is also on the wrong side of the issue that is galvanizing voter-heavy NoVA: boys and men in girls' spaces. The policies she supports and would push from the Governor's Mansion allowed this to happen:
Early in-person voting in Virginia ends November 1; Election Day is November 4. RedState, of course, will bring you all the latest.
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