India and Pakistan seem to move inexorably toward war as rhetoric and retaliatory action were ratcheted up since a bloody massacre of 26 people by the Pakistan-sponsored group called Kashmir Resistance on Tuesday; see Terror in India: Attack Leaves Dozens Dead During JD Vance's Visit – RedState.This is not the first terror attack in Kashmir, but this one was in a tourist spot, and eyewitness reports say that the gunmen singled out non-Muslims for execution.
Here's the state of play.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed vengeance. In a rally, he said, "I say to the whole world: India will identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backers." The backers are, of course, Pakistan's intelligence and military apparatus.
Both countries have ordered visa holders from the other to leave immediately. Both sides have expelled diplomats, but there hasn't been an official break in diplomatic relations. Pakistan had suspended all trade with India and put Pakistani airspace off limits to Indian aircraft.
The nightly "Beating Retreat" ceremony at the Attari-Wagah border crossing is supposed to end with the gate up and a handshake. That has been suspended.
That drew the expected response from Pakistan. Here is a member of parliament, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, telling a rally, "I would like to stand here in Sukkur by the Indus and tell India that the Indus is ours and the Indus will remain ours, whether water flows in this Indus or their blood,"
India's lone carrier, the INS Vikrant, has sortied to the Arabian Sea.
But, like the Grand Old Duke of York, it soon returned to port, allegedly due to a fire in one of its galleys.
Finally, trainloads of Pakistani artillery, all US-made M-110 8-inch self-propelled guns, have been seen moving toward the Indian border.
India and Pakistan have fought four wars.
If war breaks out, it is hard to see how this ends well for anyone. Pakistan is not a match for India in conventional warfare, but both nations have nuclear weapons. Pakistan is estimated to have 170 warheads, and India is thought to have 172. Pakistan reserves the right to use nuclear weapons first in a conflict; India's policy is that it will only use nuclear weapons if it is attacked with them. This virtually ensures any war turns nuclear, as it is difficult to see how Pakistan's Army holds off a determined effort by India and would have to go nuclear to prevent a catastrophic defeat. Adding to the uncertainty, Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is heavily focused on tactical nuclear weapons while India's is not. This could lead Pakistan to believe it could use battlefield nukes and not risk a disproportionate nuclear response.
At this point, it is hard to tell what comes next. But it seems to me that shutting off the water supply was a major escalation that it will be difficult for India to climb down from. The odds seem to favor some sort of short border war that does not devolve into an existential event for Pakistan, followed by the bizarre state of normalcy that existed before the terror attack seems most likely.
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