The past week has seen a burst of activity on the part of President Trump in attempting to negotiate an end to the war brought on by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. While President Trump is correct about the carnage, well over two million men, women, and children either killed, wounded, missing, or kidnapped, in my view, it's a fool's errand as wars only end when both sides agree there is no reason to keep fighting. We are nowhere near that point in the Ukraine war.
To review the bidding.
Trump rolled out the red carpet for Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson. While it was a good photo op for both Trump and Putin, some of the accomplishments were overblown (National Security Analyst: Trump 'Got What He Needed' in Alaska – RedState). There was no joint press conference; Putin was allowed to dominate post-meeting remarks, and Trump got nothing from the meeting other than an illusory, in my view, process.
The Monday meeting of President Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, French President Emmanuel Macron, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, and European Commission President Ursula von de Leyen was much more congenial (Trump’s Trilateral Tease: Oval Office Meeting With Zelensky Sparks Talk of Three-Way Summit – RedState) and produced a boomlet of optimism that Zelensky and Putin would meet (Big: Putin Agrees to Bilateral Meeting With Zelensky – RedState) and if necessary that would be followed by a Trump-Zelensky-Putin meeting. There was talk that NATO would provide, in the words of Steve Witkoff, "robust security guarantees" with "Article 5-like language." Article 5 refers to that article of the North Atlantic Treaty that sort of, but not exactly, says an attack on one member is an attack on all (Ukraine May Be Offered 'Article 5-Like Language' in Peace Deal. What's the Catch? – RedState).
The problem is that absolutely nothing that was said by our side after the Alaska and Washington meetings was agreed to by Russia, according to Russian officials.
No NATO Peacekeepers
Russia has vetoed the idea that European troops can be used as peacekeepers; see Russia Rejects NATO Forces As Security in Ukraine – RedState. Beyond that, Russia demands that it be given a role in guaranteeing Ukraine's security and deciding how violations are dealt with.
Russia’s negotiators wanted to go even further, seeking a clause that would have required all guarantor countries, including Russia, to agree on military intervention in response to a future attack on Ukraine. In effect, that condition would have allowed Moscow to invade Ukraine again and then veto any military intervention on Kyiv’s behalf.
In case you are thinking you've heard something like that before, you have. The 1994 Budapest Memorandum also made Russia a guarantor of Ukraine's political independence, which was part of the same agreement where Russia pledged to "refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence" of Ukraine.
Russia wants any peacekeeping troops to be Third World types provided under the aegis of the UN Security Council. This would give Russia a double veto in preventing future fighting, as it would control the decision on the ground and have a veto in the UNSC. Even that seems to have changed, as just yesterday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov vetoed the idea of any foreign troops in Ukraine.
Speaking about the possibility of foreign troops being deployed on Ukrainian territory, the Russian foreign minister stated that Moscow has always viewed this as unacceptable. "And I hope they understand that this would be absolutely unacceptable for Russia and for all sensible political forces in Europe," Lavrov said.
This would not seem to apply to North Korean troops fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine.
No Putin-Zelensky Meeting
The underlying problem with this is that it is rank stupidity to expect Zelensky and Putin to meet before there is a peace agreement to sign. That isn't the way negotiations happen. The issues that have to be resolved are immense. For instance, any surrender of land by Ukraine requires the approval of parliament and a national referendum. To make issues more complicated, Putin does not agree that Zelensky is the lawful president of Ukraine. This is Lavrov as quoted in TASS:
The issue of the legitimacy of the signatory from the Ukrainian side will need to be resolved in the event of reaching an agreement with Kiev, Lavrov continued. "Our president has repeatedly said that he is ready to meet, including with Mr. Zelensky, provided that all issues that require consideration at the highest level will be well-developed, and experts and government ministers will prepare appropriate recommendations. And, of course, on the condition that when, I hope, it comes to signing future agreements, the issue of the legitimacy of the person who will sign these agreements for the Ukrainian side will be resolved," he explained.
Yesterday, Lavrov gave an interview which is translated by the Financial Times's Christopher Miller.
I think the chances of a meeting between Zelensky and Putin before end of August is exactly zero. After that, extremely slim to none. A Putin-Zelensky summit is a fantasy of Trump’s. He appears to have misunderstood Putin or been misled by him. Lavrov said today,
“Putin confirmed his readiness to continue direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations that took place in Istanbul.” And that Putin was prepared to “raise the level of delegations.” But that is not Putin saying he is ready to meet Zelensky.
No Ukrainian Sovereignty
Russia has long demanded that Ukraine not be allowed to join the EU or NATO. This still seems to be in effect.
Lavrov as bad cop:
– any Putin-Zelensky meeting has to be "prepared extremely carefully"
– Russia will only agree to a deal that "respects" its security interests
– The "foundations of Ukraine's recognition as an independent state would disappear" if it aligns with the west
Bottom Line
Russia has publicly disavowed literally every bit of progress that was alleged to have been made during and following the Trump-Putin meeting. That leads to a number of possibilities, among which are:
The best we can say is that we are no closer to peace in Ukraine than we were on January 20, 2025.
Is Something Changing?
Trump has given Putin multiple deadlines to show an interest in ending the war. The last one passed on August 8, if we are counting from the July 28 "10 to 12" day deadline, or we are 13 days away if we are counting from the July 14 "50 day" deadline.
Thursday morning, President Trump's Truth Social account had this announcement:
It is very hard, if not impossible, to win a war without attacking an invaders country. It’s like a great team in sports that has a fantastic defense, but is not allowed to play offense. There is no chance of winning! It is like that with Ukraine and Russia. Crooked and grossly incompetent Joe Biden would not let Ukraine FIGHT BACK, only DEFEND. How did that work out? Regardless, this is a war that would have NEVER happened if I were President - ZERO CHANCE. Interesting times ahead!!! President DJT
What makes this message so unusual is that Trump is implying Ukraine could win by attacking, and he calls Russia the "invaders" when he refused to sign onto a G7 statement in February labeling Russia the "aggressors." He has also blamed Ukraine for starting the war.
This seems to give Ukraine the green light to hit Russian economic targets. It also carried the same sense of frustration as did an earlier statement to Zelensky to make Russia "feel the pain;" see Trump Tells Zelensky to Make Russia 'Feel the Pain,' but What Does Any of It Mean? – RedState.
Does this mean that he's tiring of being Charlie Brown, kicking the football held by Putin's Lucy?
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