As Fall begins knocking on the door, Democrats are banking on history to be in their favor as they look forward to the 2026 midterms. But as the 2022 election showed, with Republicans severely underperforming "red wave" predictions, a trend is only a trend until it's not. 

Traditionally, the out-party does very well in the next election after an opposing party's president is inaugurated. That happens for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is that because they don't hold power, it's easy for them to deflect the blame for the problems that will inevitably occur. That's true even if those problems trace back to policies previously put in place by the out-party. 

A new analysis of voter registration trends is challenging that dynamic, though. According to The New York Times, Democrats saw dramatic declines across the country, including in key battlegrounds like Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Just as importantly, though, the Democratic Party continues to crater in formerly purple states like Florida. And while I'm not predicting Republicans will start winning there anytime soon, you're even seeing massive drop-offs in Massachusetts and Rhode Island. 

ALSO SEE: Democrat Prospects for 2026 Have Taken a Very Dark Turn

The story for Republicans is more complicated. While they posted mostly gains in the analysis, they were more muted. The states that showed declines for GOP registration did not post large drops. Well, except for Colorado, because that place is just hopeless at this point. The California transplants have fully taken over and destroyed another beautiful state. 

All of this is terrible news for Democrats, and it speaks to the damage their brand has taken over the years. What was the catalyst for that? I think it was as much cultural as it was economic. Yes, Americans despised "Bidenomics," but they also despise a party that wants to force their daughters to compete against boys in the name of "transgenderism" or that crime needs to be tolerated out of some perverted idea of "social justice."

I don't think there was one catalyst issue that led us here, though illegal immigration played an outsized role. I think Democrats are suffering from a snowball effect of awful governance and cultural insanity that they continue to endorse wholeheartedly. 

Whether that means Republicans will beat the odds in 2026 has yet to be seen, but the alarm bells are ringing for Democrats. They can't just sit around and hope people hate Trump enough to sweep them back into power. They've already tried that, and it failed miserably.