The inverted yield curve is usually a reliable predictor that a recession is on the way, but so far the lag is at the longish end of previous patterns. On the other hand, some other indicators suggest things are definitely slowing down, and keep in mind that unemployment statistics are usually a lagging indicator of an economic downturn. Let’s start with falling demand for truck drivers:

Maybe there are fewer truck drivers being hired because there is less to ship?

Probably mortgage rates have something to do with it:

The inverted yield curve is usually a reliable predictor that a recession is on the way, but so far the lag is at the longish end of previous patterns. On the other hand, some other indicators sugg…{ai:summary}<p>#economy The inverted yield curve is a potential recession predictor, but the timing seems longer than before. Various indicators show things are slowing down. Falling demand for truck drivers and a slowdown in home buying may indicate the impact of mortgage rates.</p>

The Daily Chart: Recession Indicators?

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