The latest quarterly economic growth report out this morning came in higher than expected (though the expected figure was fairly low—a 1.5% annualize rate). More fuel for the current narrative: the financial press is nearly unanimous—the Federal Reserve are geniuses, and we’re headed for a magical “soft landing” in the current interest rate cycle.

That’s what makes me predict a recession for mid year: whenever the establishment crowd says X, bet on Y. You’ll be right more often than not. And thus, some historical evidence:

The latest quarterly economic growth report out this morning came in higher than expected (though the expected figure was fairly low—a 1.5% annualize rate). More fuel for the current narrative: the…{ai:summary}<p>#economy The latest economic growth report shows higher-than-expected growth, fueling the narrative of a "soft landing" in the interest rate cycle. However, the establishment's optimism makes me predict a recession for mid-year. History has shown that betting against them often proves right.</p>

The Daily Chart: Hard Landing?

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