It’s early yet, and polls at this point really aren’t worth very much. At this point in 2007, Rudy Giuliani was the GOP front-runner in the polls; at this point in 2015, Jeb Bush and Scott Walker were the front-runners in the polls.

That said, the 2024 contest looks like a two-man race between Trump and DeSantis. Right now Trump has surged back into a strong lead. However, by one measure DeSantis looks stronger than past nominees at this point:

Second, keep in mind that in 2016 arguably the decisive blow in favor of Trump came in the Florida primary, when he routed Marco Rubio and the rest of the field. Worth noting, then, how much better DeSantis performed in his recent re-election in 2022 compared to Trump in 2020, as shown in this Echelon Insights graphic: