Pollsters love to ask the generic ballot question: without naming names, “If the elections for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or for the Republican candidate?” It is a basic measure of party strength as the next election approaches.

The generic ballot question is also weirdly volatile. Preferences shift more often than one would expect.

In any event, Rasmussen has good news for Republicans:

Ten months ahead of the 2024 election, Republicans have a nine-point lead as they seek to maintain their narrow House majority.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that if the elections for Congress were held today, 49% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 40% would vote for the Democrat. Just five percent (5%) would vote for some other candidate, but another nine percent (7%) are not sure.

A 9 point margin is solid. At least, it used to be. In days gone by, the generic ballot favored Democrats, and if it was even close, it portended a GOP victory. I don’t think that is still true. Thus, in October 2022 I forecasted a blowout win for the House GOP, based on Rasmussen’s seven-point GOP margin. Needless to say, it didn’t happen.

So conventional wisdom about polling, as we knew it a decade ago, is out the window. These days, a significant Republican margin ten months out from the election may mean little or nothing. Still, if you had to choose, you would like to see the GOP ahead by nine points any time in the election cycle. We will see how that leads holds up in future polling, and, of course–the only thing that counts–in actual 2024 voting.