Americas PAC commissioned polling in Arizona by VCreek/AMG. The pollster’s report is embedded below. It finds the GOP looking strong:
In a ‘Head-to-Head’ ballot test, Trump leads Biden 46% to 41% with 5% Unsure and 8% indicating “Neither” even though “Neither” was not directly offered as an option.
In a second scenario with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. on the ballot, Trump dropped to 40%, Biden 35%, Kennedy 16%, Unsure 6% and “Someone Else” 3%. Here again, “Someone Else” was not directly offered as an option.
An interesting result that suggests Kennedy will draw from Trump and Biden about equally. Early polling tends to overestimate the strength of third-party candidates, but if the effect is neutral that probably becomes immaterial.
VCreek/AMG also polled the upcoming Senate race:
In a possible U.S. Senate General Election matchup, Kari Lake came out on top with 39%, Ruben Gallego 34%, Kyrsten Sinema 19%, Unsure 7% and Someone Else 1%.
The assumption here is that Gallego will win the Democratic nomination and Sinema will run as an independent. In a way, it is too bad: I would rather have a Republican in the seat, but would prefer Sinema to probably any other Democrat now in the Senate.
These results reflect the underlying strength of the GOP brand in Arizona:
At this point, Republican Candidates have an edge against Democrats in Arizona. Republican candidates in Arizona likely have a solid base of about 40%. The Biden/Democrat base wavers from a high of 41% to a low 30%.
As to the presidential race, the pollster warns that there are a lot of persuadable voters–the undecideds, plus those who volunteered “Neither.” He suggests that Trump’s standing could decline between now and next November:
The 13% of currently uncommitted voters will be a key variable. A second is the potential for the news media to increase the volume of negative coverage of Trump.
Arizona has ~3.4 Million Probable Presidential Year Voters. More than a 1,000,000 of Arizona’s Probable Presidential Year Voters are registered as Independent/Unaffiliated/Other/Etc., who are the voters most susceptible to Negativity Bias. The current news media coverage of Trump is not nearly as negative and pervasive as it was in 2018 or even late 2020. The persuadable voters may have become immune to negative coverage of Trump, or it may shift them against Trump.
Can it possibly be true that recent news coverage of Trump has been less negative than in 2018 or 2020? It has mostly been about his criminal indictments. In any event, if press hostility could dampen support for Trump he would have disappeared from the scene long ago.
The election is a long way off, but if you are a Republican these results are good news from a swing state.