IDF Lt. Colonel (reserve) Jonathan Conricus posted another update on the status of the war a few hours ago. I have embedded it below. In this update Conricus focuses on the northern front. Hezbollah and Iran are testing Israel and President Biden. He rightly characterizes himself as “a credible source.” He reports that Hezbollah has been escalating its attacks on Israel. Hezbollah does not appear to be paying Biden’s instruction (“Don’t) any mind, depending on what Biden meant by “Don’t.” I infer the Supreme Leader has assessed that Biden didn’t mean much. If Biden has deterred any actor up to this point, it is Israel.

“So far,” Conricus explains, “Israel’s response [to Hezbollah’s attacks] has been confined.” He adds: “That is so far.”

“Bottom line, and what you all need to know,” he adds, “Hezbollah is playing a very, very dangerous game.” His concluding remarks imply that Lebanon is an actor independent of Hezbollah, but I don’t think he has that right. Hezbollah is in control of Lebanon. Hezbollah is not the least constrained by authorities of the people of Lebanon.