The good Jim Messina is the guitarist, songwriter, producer, and former member of Buffalo Springfield, Poco, and Loggins and Messina. The bad Jim Messina is the smart former campaign manager of Barack Obama’s 2012 presidential campaign. He has prepared a 22-slide presentation to reassure nervous Democrats sweating out Joe Biden’s descent into senescent nullity. Politico has posted the slides here along with the related Playbook story here. Discounting the enthusiasm for the performance of the Biden economy and such, I found it of interest.

Happy days are not here again, yet Messina outlines a variety of electoral paths leading to Biden’s reelection. Messina’s biggest caveat is a possible third-party candidacy. One might infer this caveat in any event from the hostility of the mainstream media to the possibility of such a candidacy.

Slide 11 bears on the effect of Trump’s legal troubles. If things go as planned, Trump will be convicted in one ore more courtrooms and incarcerated somewhere by November 5, 2024. Andrew Stiles has imagined Trump’s “Letter from Fulton County Jail,” but I think a low security federal institution would be more likely.

According to the data presented on Slide 11, “54% of Americans, including 57% of Independents, believe Trump should face criminal charges linked to 2020 Election Interference.” The slide cites Quinnipiac. The related Quinippiac poll is posted here.

The poll surveyed 1,818 adults by telephone (random digit dialing, or “RDD”), so it’s some distance from likely voters. Does it accurately anticipate the electoral impact of a conviction in the case against Trump in the District of Columbia? I think it gives a pretty good idea, but you be the judge.