The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held off on raising interest rates for the first time in more than a year — but warned that at least two more increases could be in store for 2023.

Central bank officials now expect the economy to grow faster and unemployment to drop less this year than they projected in March, convincing them that higher borrowing costs might still be necessary to bring inflation back down to 2 percent over the next couple of years.

But they’re not certain and want more time to gauge the economy’s trajectory. The rate-setting committee said in its post-meeting statement that keeping rates steady for now “allows the Committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy.”

The Fed’s path going forward on interest rates could have a profound impact on the 2024 elections since high borrowing costs can slow growth and dent consumer confidence, further souring Americans’ view of President Joe Biden’s handling of the economy.

The forecasts from Fed officials convey a striking theme: They expect the economy to be remarkably resilient — a double-edged sword for Biden. Avoiding recession would be a boon to the White House heading into the election, but the economy’s strength could also make the central bank squeeze borrowing costs even more to hit the job market harder — which could lead to a deeper downturn.

According to Fed policymakers’ projections, unemployment, which currently stands at 3.7 percent, would rise to only 4.1 percent in 2023 even if rates go higher, compared to their 4.5 percent forecast in March. They also project GDP will grow 1 percent this year, suggesting that the U.S. could avoid recession. But that’s essentially their best-case scenario.

The forecasts also show considerable disagreement within the Fed about the policy path. Half of the rate-setting committee’s 18 members expect two more rate hikes this year. But six expect fewer than that, including two forecasting none at all, and three expect more.

That divide reflects not only different approaches to policy but also the lack of clarity about how quickly the economy will slow.

Inflation has dropped markedly in the past year, but so-called core inflation has cooled less than food and energy, where prices are more volatile.

Indeed, though Fed officials forecast that their preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures index, will fall to 3.2 percent by the end of the year, they now expect core PCE to be at 3.9 percent. That’s higher than their March projection.