For more than a year, the Ukraine War has ground on inconclusively. The cost in lives has been enormous. While official casualty figures are useless, several independent media outlets have carried out their own investigations by scanning death notices, reading local newspaper reports of dead soldiers, and reading church funeral notices in newsletters.
Ukraine claims to have killed one million Russian soldiers. That's absurd, but the total of killed, wounded, and missing may be close to that number. It appears that 2024 was the deadliest year of the war for Russia as they threw in wave after wave of infantry, gaining virtually nothing. According to sources, the Russians have moved approximately 188 square miles in the last month, the best month of the year. Some casualty estimates for the last month claim 45,000 Russian dead. Considering the manic offensive nature of Russian strategy, that claim sounds realistic.
Ukraine has lost between 400,000 and 700,000 soldiers, according to non-government sources. The point is that all of the dead are dying for literally nothing. The front lines haven't shifted more than a few miles since the summer of 2023. The only people gaining anything from this conflict now are undertakers and casket makers.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has obstinately refused entreaties from Donald Trump to end the war. Trump is holding out the prospect of lifting some sanctions if Putin makes a deal.
For his part, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky is still clinging to his fantasy that he can fight long enough to win back all the territory seized by Russia since 2015, including Crimea. Someone should knock Mr. Zelesky upside the head and bring him back to Earth.
Donald Trump may be about to do that.
According to the Associated Press, Trump will meet with Putin and Zelensky separately "soon," perhaps as early as next week.
“We propose, first of all, to focus on preparing a bilateral meeting with Trump, and we consider it most important that this meeting be successful and productive,” said Putin’s foreign affairs adviser, Yuri Ushakov.
Ushakov dismissed the prospect of Zelensky joining the meeting, although Trump said he wasn't ruling it out.
Mr. Trump disclosed his plans on Wednesday in a call with European leaders, which included Mr. Zelensky, the people said. The meetings would include only the three men, and would not include European counterparts.
Asked later Wednesday if Russia and Ukraine had agreed to the summit, Mr. Trump told reporters: “There’s a very good prospect that they will.”
Mr. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, did not respond to a request for comment, but Mr. Zelensky appeared to signal that a direct meeting was possible.
Trump would welcome a breakthrough of any kind, but Putin isn't likely to change his position unless Trump offers some sweeteners, such as lifting some sanctions, releasing frozen Russian assets, or removing barriers for Russia to international financial markets.
The key actor in this play is Vladimir Putin. He's the aggressor. It's his army continuing to move forward at tremendous human cost. To get him off the starting line, Trump has made some noises about renewing U.S. aid to Ukraine.
Mr. Trump has been stymied for months in his efforts to find a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, after more than three years of war. Mr. Trump has been a skeptic of U.S. military aid to Ukraine, and he dressed down Mr. Zelensky in a remarkable Oval Office meeting earlier this year, with cameras rolling. Still, frustrated by the slow pace of talks with Russia, Mr. Trump recently authorized more arms sales to NATO allies that are intended for Ukraine.
Mr. Trump has tried giving Mr. Putin room to come to the negotiating table over several months. But more recently, he has publicly excoriated Mr. Putin, suggesting the Russian leader was simply playing him for time after repeated conversations with Mr. Witkoff.
Mr. Witkoff’s latest visit to Moscow came as Mr. Trump has threatened secondary sanctions against Russia as the war drags on. On Wednesday, Mr. Trump signed an order that would double tariffs on imports from India, to 50 percent, as punishment for its continued purchases of Russian oil.
Putin will not stop fighting until he achieves his goals or someone forces him to stop. That's not going to be Ukraine, which has just one-third the number of men as Russia, with many veteran soldiers having fought along the line since 2023.
I'd say any movement in these meetings is highly unlikely, except it's Donald Trump. I've made the mistake of underestimating Trump in the past, so if he can pull a rabbit out of the hat during his meetings next week, I won't be totally surprised.
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