On Thursday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt laid out a timeline for Trump's decision on whether to bomb Iran.
“I know there has been a lot of speculation amongst all of you in the media regarding the president’s decision-making,” Ms. Leavitt said. “In light of that … I have a message directly from the president.”
“Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks,” Leavitt said, quoting Trump.
You'll note that the statement doesn't say Trump will decide in two weeks. The statement said "within" two weeks. In that interpretation, nothing much has changed. He's given Iran a little more time to give any sign at all that they are amenable to giving up their uranium enrichment.
I doubt whether Trump will wait two weeks. Iran is bound to throw the gift of extra time back in the president's face. Once they strike that kind of defiant pose, Trump will give them what they're begging for.
However, other considerations may have influenced Trump's decision to delay. According to the New York Post, the president is worried about Iran becoming "another Libya."
The U.S. and allied air strikes on Libya in 2011, along with the "Arab Spring" street revolution against Muammar Qaddafi, forced Qaddafi to flee, leaving chaos and anarchy behind. The resulting decade of unrest allowed groups like ISIS to gain a foothold in the region.
Israel's attacks on Iranian oil facilities are doing far more damage to the regime than strikes on Tehran's nuclear sites. The nation is teetering on the edge of economic collapse, and it wouldn't take much to send it over the top and bring about a replay of 1979.
According to the Iranian Parliament’s Research Center, inflation in 2025 is projected to remain above 35% in the most optimistic scenario, while more pessimistic forecasts warn it could surpass 50%, exacerbating an already dire economic situation. Reports indicate that persistent inflationary pressures are rapidly eroding household purchasing power, leading to declining consumer demand and placing domestic industries on the brink of collapse. The diminishing purchasing power of households has led to a stagnation in consumer markets, pushing domestic industries to the brink of collapse. Asr-e-Iran reports, “The continued erosion of the middle class’s purchasing power due to persistently high inflation has expanded poverty and maintained income inequality at alarming levels.”
The major difference between Iran and Libya is that the Iranian government has the backing of 190,000 fanatical Revolutionary Guards and several hundred thousand equally fanatical Basij militiamen. Without a well-armed opposition, any effort to overthrow the current government is likely to fail.
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Trump's concerns about Iran turning into another Libya are not without merit. But there are probably other reasons Trump is hesitating for a few days to join Israel's attack.
Trump has reportedly asked for a guarantee that the 30,000 lb. "Bunker Busting" GBU-57 MOP bomb will take out the advanced centrifuges and highly enriched uranium stockpile stored at the Fordow nuclear facility. Pentagon experts are split on whether the ordinance can do the job.
The effectiveness of GBU-57s has been a topic of deep contention at the Pentagon since the start of Trump’s term, according to two defense officials who were briefed that perhaps only a tactical nuclear weapon could be capable of destroying Fordow because of how deeply it is located.
Trump is not considering using a tactical nuclear weapon on Fordow and the possibility was not presented by defense secretary Pete Hegseth and the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff Gen Dan Caine in meetings in the White House situation room, two people familiar with the matter said.
But the defense officials who received the briefing were told that using conventional bombs, even as part of a wider strike package of several GBU-57s, would not penetrate deep enough underground and that it would only do enough damage to collapse tunnels and bury it under rubble.
Trump has his own timeline for making a final decision on whether to attack Iran. All other considerations aside, it will come down to whether going to war against Iran will be worth it to the United States.
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