There are obviously multiple ways we could interpret this, but on its face, it doesn’t look good for the Harris-Walz campaign. According to Trump campaign manager Chris LaCivita, Kamala’s campaign appears to be pulling money out of North Carolina, and LaCivita speculates that the campaign is possibly diverting resources to Virginia, where some recent polls show a close race.
Others are reporting this as well.
I don’t know how accurate this is, and given that the Harris campaign has significantly out-fundraised the Trump campaign, in theory, it has money to burn. So why not keep going on offense in North Carolina? Of course, the Harris campaign has also been spending money far more rapidly than the Trump campaign, and there’s very little to show for it, which might explain it.
Signs that Republicans are going to perform well in North Carolina are certainly there. Republicans are doing well in the early vote.
However, according to the polling averages, North Carolina is still ripe for the Democrats to flip this year.
Of course, this certainly doesn’t mean that Kamala has given up on North Carolina; she is expected to visit the state on Wednesday. However, canceling a rally would be a far more ominous sign than reducing ads, and the Harris-Walz campaign may not want to show its cards.
Related: Think the Polls Are Undercounting Trump’s Support? Here’s Why You Shouldn’t.
But perhaps even more telling is that the Arlington, Va., GOP is reporting that the Harris-Walz campaign is diverting staffers from North Carolina to Virginia.
If this is all true, it is an extremely ominous sign for the Harris-Walz campaign. It has no reason to be confident that North Carolina is solidly in its column, and diverting resources to Virginia rather than one of the blue wall states suggests that the campaign is now playing defense, which is an incredibly ominous sign.
If Trump wins Arizona and North Carolina, Kamala has to win all three of the blue wall states to win the election. Can she do it? Perhaps. But given how Trump is stronger in all three states today than he was in the past two elections, that’s going to be an incredibly tall order.