When Israel unilaterally withdrew from the Gaza Strip in 2005 — and some settlers had to be removed at gunpoint — it probably seemed unthinkable that Israel would ever again lay claim to the Strip. Various reports indicate that Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu is indeed thinking the unthinkable, and French President Emmanuel Macron is likely the accidental instigator.
"Netanyahu is considering a plan to annex territories in Gaza if Hamas doesn't agree to a ceasefire plan. This is one of several options," an unnamed Israeli source told ABC News.
The Israeli government has repeatedly told Hamas that the war can end immediately — all it has to do is release the remaining hostages. Or, probably more accurately, return their remains. Hamas refuses to do so, even though Israel has made clear that its war aim is the elimination of Hamas as both a military and political force.
Why would Hamas take such a suicidal risk? You can thank Western politicians like Macron for providing Hamas with the political cover the terrorist organization believes will allow it to survive any IDF onslaught. Just last Friday, Macron announced that his country will recognize a Palestinian state starting in September.
Western recognition of the Palestinians — an imaginary people that the Soviets and Egyptian-born Yasser Arafat conjured up in the 1960s — would create a legal nest of vipers for Jerusalem. I'll let the international law experts go into those details, but my GPT research served up a big, steaming bowl of "Not Good."
For America's part, President Donald Trump brushed off Macron: "That statement doesn’t carry any weight." Nor should it, for anyone interested in peace and in eliminating one of the world's worst terrorist outfits — two inextricably intertwined and mutually reinforcing goals.
That recognition effort may have triggered far more than diplomatic friction. It could set the stage for a major and permanent shift in Israeli policy.
Israel's N12 news service analyst Amit Segal called the potential annexations "significant" because once Israel annexes territory, giving it back is nearly impossible.
"While the military can simply relinquish any territory it controls, annexing parts of the strip is almost irreversible," Segal explained this morning on X. "According to Israeli law, if the government wants to relinquish territory it has annexed, it has two options: the withdrawal can either be approved by 80 of the Knesset’s 120 members, or through a referendum."
As divisive as Israeli politics are, getting 80 votes on anything as contentious as giving up land seems highly unlikely. As horrible as Oct. 7 was, getting Israeli voters to approve of giving land back to Hamas seems even less likely.
Here's the kicker: Annexation is hard to undo, but actually annexing new real estate requires nothing more than Netanyahu's approval. What one man can do requires 80 to undo.
Earlier this month, France’s National Court of Asylum "ruled that Palestinian nationals from Gaza who are not under the United Nations protection may be granted refugee status under the 1951 Geneva Convention." That would presumably include any Gaza Arabs in lands occupied — or annexed — by Israel.
If I were Netanyahu, I'd be thinking very hard about two things right now. The first, of course, is which parts of the Strip are essential to Israeli security and ripe for annexation. The second is how to play hardball with Macron. Maybe — just maybe! — Israel won't flood France with Gazans they're legally obligated to take in as refugees, so long as Macron backs away from recognition.
Two can play this game. And should.
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