Iran is in trouble, and the theocratic clique that has ruled the country for 46 years is worried.
Who is Israel going to target next? There's no protection for anyone in Iran. Politicians, scientists, bureaucrats, and military leaders are all looking over their shoulders or watching the sky anxiously, wondering if there's a bomb or a drone with their name on it.
Paranoia has gripped the Iranian elites. This has resulted in what Reuters describes as a "campaign of widespread arrests." There's also an "intensified street presence" as authorities attempt to head off any kind of mass protests, such as Iran has often seen.
The major question that's occupying the Iranian leadership is the location and health of 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Leader has not been seen for almost a week during the biggest foreign crisis the regime has faced.
Mohsen Khalifeh, the editor in chief of Khaneman, a daily newspaper focused on real-estate development, said in an interview that Mr. Khamenei’s “days-long absence has made all of us who love him very worried.” Acknowledging a possibility that two weeks ago would have seemed unthinkable, Mr. Khalifeh added that if Mr. Khamenei were dead, his funeral procession would be “the most glorious and historic.”
As the supreme leader, Mr. Khamenei has the last word on all major state matters. As the commander in chief of the armed forces, he would be expected to approve any military decision as significant as the attack on the American base or the cease-fire deal with Israel.
The cease-fire agreement, requested by President Trump and mediated by the emir of Qatar, appears to have been brokered swiftly. Yet senior military commanders and government officials have been evasive about whether they have met or spoken with Mr. Khamenei in recent days.
Khamenei has reportedly been in poor health in recent years, although there have been no reports of sickness lately. It could very well be that Trump's recent threats against him have terrified the leader and sent him scurrying underground.
But the smoke signals from Tehran indicate something may be up.
Four senior Iranian officials, familiar with current policy discussions in the government, said that in Mr. Khamenei’s absence, politicians and military commanders were forming alliances and vying for power. These factions have different visions of how Iran should move forward with its nuclear program, its negotiations with the United States and the standoff with Israel.
The faction that appears to have the upper hand at the moment is pushing for moderation and diplomacy, the four officials said. It includes Mr. Pezeshkian, who has publicly signaled his willingness to return to the bargaining table with the United States even after Mr. Trump bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities. Mr. Pezeshkian’s allies include the head of the judiciary, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, who is close to the supreme leader, and the new commander of the armed forces, Maj. Gen. Abdolrahim Mousavi.
Iran is so riddled with factions that the absence of Khamenei will exacerbate the divisions in the leadership, no matter how united the people might be.
Activists realize that this is not the time to challenge the regime. The exception is the always-restless Kurdish region in far northwest Iran. Iranian Kurdistan and Kurdish regions in Iraq and Turkey have been agitating for an independent homeland, and activists will use any excuse to voice their displeasure with the Iranian regime.
There were several executions near the Turkish border and hundreds have been arrested, according to Reuters.
"We are being extremely cautious right now because there's a real concern the regime might use this situation as a pretext," said a rights activist in Tehran. He was jailed during anti-hijab protests in 2022.
Waiting in the wings to take any advantage is the so-called "conservative" faction. They're hardly more or less "conservative" than President Pezeshkian. They all have views that reflect the beliefs of Supreme Leader Khamenei, which don't get any more hardline.
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However, Pezeshkian has a different temperament than the hardliners. He wants to kill Jews more slowly. Ascribing "moderate" views to him, as we understand the term in the West, is a mistake. Thankfully, Donald Trump, unlike Barack Obama and his people, did not fall into the trap.
“The war and the unity among the people has created an opportunity to change our views on governance and the behavior of our officials,” Pezeshkian told his cabinet. The account of the meeting was released by the president’s office, which is highly significant. “This is a golden opportunity for change.”
Does Pezeshkian's statement about "change" mean anything? If Khamenei is dead or incapacitated, it might signal the beginning of a power struggle with an unknown outcome.
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