The 2026 House elections are shaping up to be a nightmare for Democrats, and frankly, they have no one to blame but themselves for escalating a redistricting war they cannot win. While the left continues to whine about gerrymandering when it works against them, they conveniently forget their own history of creative map-drawing when it suits their purposes.

Let's start with Texas, where Republicans are poised to add up to five additional seats through redistricting. That's five more reliable conservative votes in a chamber where control often comes down to a handful of seats. Meanwhile, California Democrats are scrambling to squeeze more seats from an already gerrymandered state. They've already maximized their redistricting potential in the Golden State, leaving little room for meaningful gains even if they pursue further changes.

The real story here isn't just Texas, though. Red states across the map are flexing their redistricting muscles thanks to Gov. Gavin Newsom’s flex. Indiana, Ohio, and Missouri are all redrawing their congressional boundaries in ways that will favor Republicans. While Democrats clutch their pearls about the unfairness of it all, Republican strategists are doing exactly what they should be doing by fighting back against years of Democrats rigging maps in their favor.

Here's where the math gets brutal for Democrats. Even if California somehow manages to eke out additional seats through redistricting, Democrats would still need to win the national popular vote by at least 2.3 percentage points just to have a fighting chance at retaking the House majority.  If California’s redistricting effort fails — and it could — but Ohio, Indiana, and Missouri move ahead with redistricting anyway, Democrats need to win by 2.8 points. If Florida also redistricts, that margin jumps to 3.4 points. 

For context, Donald Trump won the 2024 popular vote by 1.5 points. Yes, midterm elections are extremely different from presidential elections, but that’s still a significant swing. So now we have a situation where the structural advantage Republicans are building through redistricting means Democrats need to consistently win the popular vote by two to three points nationally to be favored for House control, and that makes things tough. However, it's not impossible.

“A two-to-three-point structural advantage for the G.O.P. is meaningful, but pretty modest,” notes Nate Cohn at the New York Times. “With Democrats leading by four points in the national generic ballot polls today, the party would still be favored to win next year’s midterm election. The Republicans wouldn’t stand much of any chance at all of surviving a so-called 'wave' election, like in 2018, when Democrats won the House popular vote by seven points."

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But here's the catch: They have virtually no margin for error. A few weak candidates, poorly timed retirements, or shifting demographics in key districts could easily hand control back to Republicans.

And if the Democrats’ popular vote advantage turns out to be much less than four points, the new maps could give the Republicans the advantage. Democrats, for instance, might not be able to get away with their own version of the G.O.P.’s disappointing “red ripple” election in 2022 and still win. They might not win if 2026 is like the narrow Democratic victory from 2020, either. Indeed, each of the last three congressional elections was decided by three points or less in the national popular vote, with the winner prevailing by less than seven seats.

With margins this razor-thin, every redrawn district carries enormous weight.

Republicans aren’t apologizing for playing hardball on redistricting, and why should they? Democrats have been rigging maps for years, and the GOP is finally fighting back. Of course, Republicans gerrymander too, but PJ Media readers already know that Democrats run the most aggressively gerrymandered states in the country.

That leaves Democrats in a bind. To flip the House, they would need a genuine wave like 2018, when they won the popular vote by seven points. Anything less, and they’ll likely remain in the minority. The problem is, Democrats are doubling down on deeply unpopular positions like open borders and soft-on-crime policies that make a wave election highly unlikely.

I wouldn’t bet on Democrats pulling it off. When more voters start paying attention, their radical stances on immigration and crime will drag them down even further. The generic ballot will swing against them, and when the dust settles, Democrats will realize they didn’t just lose the redistricting fight; they handed Republicans the advantage for years to come.

Republicans are finally fighting back against years of Democrat gerrymandering, and the left is panicking. From Texas gaining five seats to brutal popular vote math, Democrats face an uphill battle they created themselves. PJ Media tells you what the establishment won't—the truth about this redistricting reckoning. Support our work by joining PJ Media VIP. And don't forget to use the code FIGHT for 60% off. Don't wait, join today!