September 2025 has been an interesting month.The undeclared cold civil war in the West is everywhere coming out of the closet. Both the Woke and Populist coalitions in every country have openly declared political war on one another —clashing over ideology, generational voter bases, and economic policy.The moment of open conflict can be dated approximately from Charlie Kirk's assassination and the MAGA coalition crossing "red lines" on border policy domestically and Palestinian recognition internationally. There were other similar lines of departure in the UK, France and Germany.
The eerie thing about it is not that the kinetic level of confrontation has increased; even the Kirk assassination followed a string of attempts on other figures. It's just that no one pretends not to see the conflict any more. Yet it is still a cold conflict in the West — for now.
But the conflict is now an open one and to some extent that will redefine politics in the West. It has already broken the old Tory/Labour duopoly in the UK. In the U.S., the Bill Kristols and John Kennedys of the GOP and Dem parties are gone with the wind. But this was to be expected. The tremendous changes in technology, demographics etc. could not long have been constrained by the End of History straitjacket or the World Order of Davos. Rather something new is breaking out of its shell outside the categories of the 20th century.
The emotional question for many is whether to regard the coming remaking of the world with fear or hope — or both. Perhaps WB Yeats set the suspenseful stage best.
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
The truth is that we do not know. All real information is surprise.
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