OAN Staff Brooke Mallory
1:50 PM – Friday, June 27, 2025
A leading Wall Street economist who previously criticized President Donald Trump’s tariff strategy now admits that the 47th president may have “outsmarted all of us” with his trade policies.
Torsten Sløk, chief economist at investment powerhouse Apollo Global Management, acknowledged that while trade policy uncertainty can impact the economy, Trump could simultaneously ease tariffs on key U.S. trading partners and leverage the remaining duties to bolster federal revenue.
In a recently published analysis, Sløk also suggested that the GOP administration’s approach may be far more calculated than what he and others initially believed.
This notably optimistic reassessment marks a sharp departure from his earlier stance.
In April, Sløk warned that Trump’s tariff policies could precipitate a recession by summer, with particularly adverse effects on American small businesses and a potential disruption in the flow of goods from China to the United States—outcomes likely to spur layoffs and contribute to a broader economic slowdown.
However, more recently, Sløk proposed a possible course of action involving the maintenance of 30% tariffs on Chinese imports, coupled with the introduction of 10% tariffs on imports from all other countries. These nations would be granted a 12-month window to reduce non-tariff barriers and liberalize trade access.
“Extending the deadline one year would give countries and US domestic businesses time to adjust to the new world with permanently higher tariffs,” Sløk stated. “It would also result in an immediate decline in uncertainty, which would be positive for business planning, employment, and financial markets.”
In addition to stabilizing volatile markets, Sløk observes that such a policy could significantly enhance U.S. government revenue. He estimates it could yield approximately $400 billion annually in tariff income—a substantial sum that could help mitigate budget deficits without necessitating increases in domestic taxation.
“This would seem like a victory for the world and yet would produce $400 billion of annual revenue for US taxpayers,” he wrote. “Trade partners will be happy with only 10% tariffs and US tax revenue will go up. Maybe the administration has outsmarted all of us.”
This week, Trump announced that the United States has entered into a new trade agreement with China, describing it as a “done deal.” However, the full text of the accord has not been released, and specific details remain scarce.
Meanwhile, the GOP administration is also approaching a critical July deadline, as its 90-day suspension of tariffs with several key global trading partners is set to expire.
Negotiations are currently underway with 18 nations, including the European Union, Japan, India, Vietnam, and Malaysia. While some progress has been made, such as a framework agreement with the United Kingdom and preliminary accords with Vietnam and India, most negotiations have yet to reach a finalized stage.
Should negotiations collapse, the United States stands ready to reimpose or escalate tariffs. However, analysts remain skeptical that substantive agreements can be reached within such an accelerated timeframe, cautioning that comprehensive trade deals typically require years of deliberation.
Amid growing uncertainty, the administration may opt to extend talks beyond the July deadline, potentially into early September, as it seeks to stabilize global trade relations and avoid further economic disruption.
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