After the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, many Democrats argued that the issue would be the key to winning future elections. It was an alluring idea because it suggested that a central progressive policy goal — protecting abortion rights — doubled as a savvy political strategy.

But it hasn’t worked out. Instead, Republicans swept this year’s elections even as Democrats made the subject central to their campaigns and even as abortion-rights ballot initiatives passed in seven states. Today, the Democrats’ belief in the political potency of abortion looks like wishful thinking.

How could this have happened, given that the Republican Party’s opposition to abortion really is unpopular? In today’s newsletter, I’ll try to unravel the mystery.

Evidence ignored

Heading into 2024, abortion’s political sway was genuinely unclear.

Most Americans support substantial access to abortion access: In every state that voted on a ballot initiative in 2022 and 2023, the anti-abortion side lost. The uncertainty was whether the issue could also swing the result of general elections by causing voters who had not traditionally supported Democratic candidates to do so.

There was some reason to think the answer might be yes: Democrats did surprisingly well in the 2022 midterms, just months after Roe’s demise. But there were also reasons to be skeptical.

It was hard to find a single election where abortion seemed decisive. Although it might have helped flip a few House elections, the Democrats who won hadn’t emphasized the issue more than those who had lost. And not a single incumbent Republican governor or senator lost in 2022, despite attempts by Democratic candidates to focus on the issue.