An axiom in the national security world says you cannot bomb a country into giving up its nuclear weapons programs. The attack itself only reinforces a country’s determination to build the ultimate deterrent.
Ten days after President Trump deployed America’s most powerful bunker busters and missiles from an offshore submarine to take out three of Iran’s most critical nuclear sites, that proposition is about to be tested in real life.
On Wednesday, in what may be a glimpse of the future, Iran’s president signed a new law suspending all cooperation with United Nations nuclear inspectors. The move violates Iran’s obligations as a signer of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
But after American B-2 Spirit bombers flew roughly 7,000 miles nonstop to attack facilities that came to represent Iran’s determination to take on America and Israel, such legal niceties may not seem as important to the Iranians as they once did. And a new chapter in the quarter-century saga of Iran’s nuclear aspirations may now be starting, one in which the country’s main objective is to keep the world guessing about how fast it can recover from a devastating setback — and whether it has the uranium, the hidden technological capability and the will to race for a bomb.
By any short-term measure — the only yardsticks the White House wants to talk about — the mission in the early hours of June 22 was a success. No regional war broke out, as past presidents who considered similar military action always feared. Even skeptics about how long the Iranians were set back — six months? three years? — acknowledge that the 18,000 centrifuges that were spinning at supersonic speeds, producing near-bomb-grade uranium at a record pace, are now inoperable. Most experts believe they were destroyed.
Mr. Trump talks as if this were a one-and-done operation. “I don’t see them being back involved in the nuclear business anymore,” Mr. Trump said at the NATO summit in The Hague last week, as if Iran’s aspirations had disappeared beneath the rubble of Fordo and Natanz.