President Trump has promised to impose 25 percent tariffs on products from Canada and Mexico starting on Saturday, a vow that’s roiling the foreign exchange market. The Times’s Peter S. Goodman, who travels the world reporting on the intersection of economics and geopolitics, breaks down where Trump’s unconventional tariff strategy has left companies scrambling to secure their supply chains.

Also, DealBook has two exclusives: Michael de la Merced reports on one of the highfliers of the online predictions market, Kalshi; and Michael Kives’s venture capital firm has reached a big settlement with FTX.

When tariffs can hit anywhere

Earlier this month, I was in Colombia traveling with executives from an American medical equipment company that had set up a factory there. The company, MedSource Labs, based in Minnesota, has traditionally depended heavily on factories in China to make its goods. That no longer seemed a safe bet — not with tariffs on Chinese imports imposed by President Trump during his first term and extended during the Biden administration. Not after the chaos in international shipping during the pandemic, or disruptions to the Suez and Panama canals in recent years.

Some companies seeking alternatives to China have shifted production to Mexico, but Trump has been threatening to put tariffs on imports from that country. New duties could land as soon as Saturday.

By contrast, Colombia seemed removed from the volatility of Trump’s promised trade war. When we dropped in on a Colombian trade official in Bogotá, she was confident that her country would benefit from the Trump administration’s focus on China and Mexico, and would emerge as a more appealing place to make goods destined for the United States. “We think we are off the radar,” she said.