


The walkout of Democratic lawmakers from the Texas Legislature may ultimately fail to prevent Republican legislators from forcing through new political maps drawn to swing five U.S. House seats to that party.
But the public contretemps has accomplished one big thing for the Democrats. By drawing attention to the gerrymander in Texas, they have bought time for other states to follow Texas’ lead. That could help Democrats blunt the Republican advantage out of Texas, though Republicans are pushing for new maps in other states they dominate, potentially with fewer obstacles.
On Wednesday, dozens of Democratic legislators attending the annual National Conference of State Legislatures meeting in Boston rallied in front of the Massachusetts Statehouse, some holding signs reading, “Texas Is First. Your State Is Next.”
Here’s a list of states that are considering redistricting, and what might (or might not) happen.
Potential Democratic Gerrymanders
California
Gov. Gavin Newsom is proposing that the Legislature ask the public to vote on new maps this fall and to temporarily set aside the state’s independent mapmaking commission — but only if the Texas gerrymander succeeds. State lawmakers could vote on a plan the week of Aug. 18 that could flip as many as five Republican House seats to the Democrats, a numerical counter to Texas. If voters approve the maps, they would stay in place only through 2030.
Illinois
Gov. JB Pritzker, who has hosted the Texas Democratic holdouts in Illinois and urged national Democrats to join them in solidarity, could call a special session of the Illinois General Assembly this month. The state’s maps are already tilted heavily toward Democrats, thanks to Illinois’s redistricting effort in 2021 to give more seats to Democrats, who now hold 14 of the state’s 17 congressional seats. Drawing out even one more Republican would be difficult.
Maryland
David Moon, the majority leader of Maryland’s House of Delegates, plans to introduce a bill that would allow Maryland to embark on redistricting if any other state did the same “outside of the regular decennial census period.” Only one of Maryland’s eight House seats is held by a Republican, though, and Republican legislators have blasted any such proposal, which they said would lead to “absolutely zero Republican representation.” Turning that one seat blue would be tricky, since mapmakers would have to stretch that district from the Eastern Shore of the Chesapeake Bay to the Democratic western side.
New York
Outside of California, New York offers the most target-rich map for Democrats; seven out of the state’s 26 House seats are held by Republicans. But a redistricting commission is responsible for coming up with maps, subject to approval by the Legislature. The state Constitution would also have to be amended, making it highly unlikely that there would be enough time to change the maps for the 2026 midterms. Gov. Kathy Hochul has suggested that she is willing to disband with the redistricting commission, arguing in an essay for The Houston Chronicle on Tuesday, “If they get away with it now, 2026 will be the first of many stolen elections.”
New Jersey
Gov. Phil Murphy has not ruled out redistricting for New Jersey. But any attempt to gerrymander the maps to favor Democrats, who hold nine of 12 House seats, would require changing the state Constitution, among other hurdles.
Potential Republican Gerrymanders Beyond Texas
Ohio
Among states controlled by Republicans, Ohio is likely to be one of the first to act. After a protracted legal battle, Ohio is now required to redraw its maps before the end of the year, in time for the 2026 primary elections. Republicans are saying that their 10-5 advantage in the U.S. House of Representatives can become 12-3.
Missouri
Cindy O’Laughlin, Missouri’s Senate president pro tem, says that it is “likely” a special session will be called soon to redraw the state’s eight House districts, potentially giving Republicans an extra seat beyond the six they hold. The most likely Democratic seat to be targeted would be Representative Emanuel Cleaver’s in Kansas City.
Indiana
Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to visit Indiana on Thursday to press lawmakers into redrawing their House maps, but so far, Gov. Mike Braun, a Republican, has been cautious about calling a special session. Some experts are unclear over the legality of such a move, but many Republican legislators are eager to flip the state’s most competitive seat in northwestern Indiana, now held by a Democrat, Frank J. Mrvan, and give the party eight out of the state’s nine House seats.
South Carolina
Representative Ralph Norman, a Republican who is running for governor in 2026, is urging the South Carolina General Assembly to come up with new maps to oust the state’s lone Democrat, Representative James Clyburn, one of the House’s most senior Democrats and powerful Black leaders. (The current governor, Henry McMaster, a Republican, is term limited.) Bakari Sellers, a lawyer and former Democratic state representative, has said such a move might violate the Voting Rights Acts, since under a previous gerrymander, Republicans pushed most of the Black voters in Charleston into Mr. Clyburn’s Columbia, S.C., district, creating one district that was predominantly African American while turning the district of Representative Nancy Mace, a Republican who just announced her candidacy for governor, from a swing seat to a strong Republican one.
Nebraska
Redistricting could help Republicans prevent one swing district from flipping: the Omaha-area seat held by Representative Donald Bacon, a Republican and frequent critic of President Trump. With Mr. Bacon retiring, Democrats viewed the district, which Kamala Harris easily carried in 2024, as one of their best opportunities to gain a seat in 2026. The chairwoman of the Nebraska Republican Party said she would welcome mid-decade redistricting.
Chris Hippensteel contributed reporting.