There are two stories you can tell about the U.S. economy right now.

The first is that it has proved surprisingly resilient. Despite tariffs, inflation has remained tame. Despite federal job cuts, unemployment has remained low. Despite darkening consumer attitudes, actual spending has continued to rise.

The second story is that cracks are beginning to form, and will most likely deepen. Tariffs are starting to drive up prices. Companies are hiring fewer workers and, in many industries, aren’t adding jobs at all. Consumers are pulling back spending on plane tickets and hotel stays. And all of that is before the full effects of President Trump’s policies have worked their way through supply chains and into boardroom strategy sessions.

A week from now, it should be clearer — at least a little — which story is closer to reality.

This week will bring a flood of data that will help clarify the path the economy is on right now: major reports on gross domestic product, consumer spending and prices, and, perhaps most important, the state of the labor market.

Then there are the policy decisions that could help determine where the economy goes from here. On Wednesday, officials at the Federal Reserve will meet to set interest rates amid political pressure from the White House and division in their own ranks. And Friday, Aug. 1, is the deadline that Mr. Trump has set for countries to reach trade deals with the United States or else face punishing tariff rates.

“It’s going to be a monster week,” said Marc Giannoni, chief U.S. economist for Barclays. “By Friday, we’ll have a ton more information.”

Incomplete Information

The monster week got off to an early start on Sunday, when the United States and the European Union reached a preliminary trade deal that would set a 15 percent tariff on most goods imported from Europe — below the 30 percent he had threatened to impose, but far above the low-single-digit rates that were in place for most products before Mr. Trump took office.

Even with that deal in place, the Aug. 1 tariff deadline is arguably the biggest economic wild card of the week. Few forecasters expect Mr. Trump to follow through with the steep tariffs he has threatened to impose on countries that don’t reach deals by the deadline. But if they are wrong, inflation could be higher and growth slower than economists or the Fed expect.

Unfortunately for officials at the central bank, their midweek meeting comes before both the tariff deadline and most of the week’s big data releases.

Policymakers at the central bank have long been expected to hold interest rates steady for a fifth straight meeting, but how the economic data eventually breaks will help to inform the Fed’s policy decisions beyond that point.

Amid the uncertainty, forecasters expect Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, to shy away from sending clear-cut signals about when the central bank might restart interest rate cuts, keeping open the possibility of a reduction as early as the next meeting in September or staying pat for longer than that.

“I think what he’s going to do is try to offer as little as possible in either direction,” said Michael Pugliese, an economist at Wells Fargo. “He has to be very cautious not to commit one way or the other.”

Such a neutral stance, however, is likely to draw renewed attacks on Mr. Powell from the president. Mr. Trump has repeatedly demanded that the Fed cut interest rates aggressively and has threatened to fire Mr. Powell over his refusal to do so — something the chair and many legal experts say the president does not have the power to do.

Mr. Powell is also grappling with internal divisions. Two of the Fed’s seven governors — Christopher J. Waller and Michelle Bowman, both appointed by Mr. Trump — have publicly supported imminent rate cuts, though not on the scale that the president has demanded. Both could dissent from the Fed’s decision to keep interest rate cuts on hold this week. If they follow through, it will be the first time in more than 30 years that two governors dissent on a monetary policy decision.

At the same time, other Fed officials have indicated they are in no hurry to cut interest rates and have questioned whether it would be appropriate for the central bank to do so at all this year.

Two Scenarios

Fed officials and Wall Street economists see two fundamental ways that the economy could play out in the months ahead.

In the first scenario, the job market weakens significantly and unemployment rises. That would most likely lead consumers to pull back their spending, and make it harder for companies to pass along the cost of tariffs to their customers. That combination of higher joblessness and slower price growth would allow the Fed to cut interest rates without worrying as much about stoking inflation.

In the second scenario, the labor market and the economy as a whole prove resilient, as they have repeatedly in recent years. That would be good news by most measures. Unemployment would remain low, incomes would keep rising and consumers would keep spending. But it would also make it easier for companies to raise prices — and therefore harder for the Fed to cut interest rates as it confronts the possibility that inflation could accelerate more than it currently expects.

“If the economy is doing well and financial markets are booming, it would be hard to make the case for cutting,” said John Roberts, an economist who spent more than three decades at the Fed.

Ordinarily, a strong labor market would be welcome news for the Fed, Mr. Roberts added. But right now, it could exacerbate Mr. Powell’s political challenges.

“Ironically, that makes life harder for Jay Powell, because then the standard case for why you would want to cut rates isn’t there, and the president will be pulling his hair out,” Mr. Roberts said.

The monthly jobs report, which the Labor Department will publish on Friday, will offer key signals about which scenario is more likely.

Last month’s data showed that hiring was strong in June, but that it was mostly constrained to health care and state and local governments. If those hints of weakness become more pronounced in July — and, in particular, if the unemployment rate rises from its current 4.1 percent — that will lend weight to the idea that interest rates are exerting too much downward pressure on the economy.

“For the Fed to cut, I just think they need to see a couple of job reports that aren’t overly encouraging,” said Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, a forecasting firm. “Their North Star is still the unemployment rate.”

The Tariff Question

Members of the Trump administration argue there is also a third scenario, in which economic growth accelerates and unemployment remains low while inflation stays muted.

The recently passed tax-and-spending law, which included tax breaks for certain kinds of business spending, will spur investment, said Joseph Lavorgna, an economist who is now counselor to Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary.

“Now that the bill is law, I’d be very surprised if hiring did not accelerate,” he said. Mr. Lavorgna also argued that tariffs were unlikely to substantively raise prices, and said lower interest rates from the Fed would “galvanize and grease the skids of what should be a boom.”

Few economists outside the administration buy such arguments, however. Independent models suggest the tax cuts will have little impact on investment — and, even if they do, the benefits could take years to show up. In the meantime, tariffs are finally beginning to show through in price data.

Though tariffs have been in place for several months, their effect has been limited so far for a number of reasons. Importers rushed to stockpile products and materials before tariffs took effect, giving them the flexibility to delay price increases. Many businesses have also been wary of driving away their customers by making their products more expensive when Americans are being choosier about how they spend.

But all that could start to change once businesses have to reorder supplies, especially if tariff rates rise again. Companies can absorb only so much of the added cost before denting their profitability, leaving many with no choice but to pass it along to their customers.

“We are going to have more of a price effect and households are going to feel the pinch more going forward,” Mr. Giannoni said.

As a result, most forecasters, including at the Fed, expect inflation to accelerate as the year progresses. And that is based on current tariff levels — if Mr. Trump raises the rate significantly for a host of countries on Aug. 1, the effect is likely to be even greater.

The deal with the European Union, and a similar one with Japan that was announced last week, set tariffs at a lower level than the president had threatened to impose if no agreements had been reached. That has allayed concerns of a return to all-out trade wars between the United States and its major trading partners.

Still, the 15 percent tariff rates set in those deals is significantly higher than most forecasters expected just a few months ago. In addition, the agreements are more frameworks than fully fleshed-out deals, and Mr. Trump has a history of imposing new tariffs even after deals are in place. That means that no matter what gets decided by Aug. 1, it is unlikely to be the last word.

“Does this really take the threat of future tariffs off the table?” Mr. Sweet said of the recent deals. “I’m still a little skeptical that’s the case.”