In a typical Atlantic Ocean hurricane season, August is the ramp-up to September’s peak. This season came to life almost overnight in mid-August, producing a record four named storms in less than 48 hours.
This season’s third hurricane, Idalia, formed on Aug. 29, 10 days earlier than average. It struck the southeastern U.S. last week as a Category 3 hurricane and caused a dangerous storm surge, wind damage and flooding. (Idalia weakened but was still roaring in the Atlantic Ocean over the weekend.)
By the end of August, 11 named storms had formed. Only eight other hurricane seasons in more than 100 years of record-keeping have matched that pace, according to Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University. They include the busy and memorable seasons of 2005 (the year of Hurricane Katrina), 2020 (with a record 30 named storms) and 2021 (the year of the powerful Ida).
This relatively frenetic end of August doesn’t necessarily mean that we should brace for an onslaught of late-summer and autumn storms, Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center, told me. “It’s very common that you’ll get a whole bunch of storms, then it will take a week or two off,” he said.
What’s next
At this busy point in the hurricane season, forecasters begin homing in on two-week forecasts. Even if named storms form over the next two weeks, it could feel calmer because there is a decent chance that they will develop off the coast of Africa and stay well out into the Atlantic Ocean, far from people. Such hurricanes are sometimes called fish storms because they affect only the fish.
As for the rest of hurricane season, which ends in November, two clashing meteorological forces are battling to determine how busy its remaining weeks will be.
The first force is El Niño, the climate phenomenon that shows up intermittently and can affect weather around the world. El Niño arrived over the summer, and forecasters predicted that it would ramp up in intensity. Historically, it produces abundant amounts of wind in varying speeds and directions that tears apart storms. The stronger El Niño becomes, the greater its influence in limiting the formation of Atlantic Ocean hurricanes.
But El Niño is competing with another factor: the heightened ocean water temperatures that grabbed headlines this summer for bleaching coral and turning Florida’s coastal waters into something akin to a hot tub. Scientists believe that climate change has contributed to the warming oceans. The abnormally hot water temperatures provide more energy to fuel hurricanes and could thwart El Niño’s mitigating effects on these storms.
It’s rare to see both El Niño and warmer ocean waters simultaneously, and the lack of historical context has reduced experts’ confidence in their predictions. But at the halfway point of the hurricane season, just a few more named storms will make their forecasts of an above-average number of storms come true.
More on climate
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Thousands of people are still stranded at the Burning Man festival, after mud from torrential rain closed roads. Some campers may be able to leave today.
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THE LATEST NEWS
War in Ukraine
Volodymyr Zelensky said he would replace his defense minister. The ministry has faced scandals over weapons contracts.
Zelensky’s nominee for the role is from an ethnic group that Russia is accused of persecuting.
Vladimir Putin is expected to meet with Turkey’s leader to discuss reviving a grain deal, as Russia continues to attack Ukrainian grain facilities.
Politics
President Biden’s aides have begun moving to counter any effort to impeach him, without waiting for congressional Republicans to begin a formal inquiry.
Politicians need vacations, too, but an ostentatious trip — too elite, too disconnected, too much beach bod — can alienate voters.
A redistricting fight in Los Angeles highlights the gerrymandering that occurs in cities across the country, often led by Democrats.
China
Small, agile boats would help the U.S. win a conflict with China, some experts say. But the Navy, wedded to tradition, is still building big ships.
The U.S. is opening embassies in island nations to push back against Chinese influence, The Washington Post reports.
Other Big Stories
Gang rapes of two preteen girls shocked Italy, and fueled debate over violence and sexism.
Montana’s attorney general has made banning TikTok a top priority.
Texas became the latest state to drop taxes on menstrual products.
Over 85,000 highchairs are being voluntarily recalled after reports of two dozen falls.
A woman gave birth alone in a jail cell after seeking medical help for more than an hour.
Opinions
The American empire will never return to global dominance, John Rapley writes, and the U.S. should try to lead a coalition of world powers instead.
Liberals and conservatives have both overreached on L.G.B.T.Q. issues, putting progress at risk, Brad Polumbo argues.
Here are columns by David French on age verification laws and Nicholas Kristof on accusations of ethnic cleansing in Azerbaijan.
MORNING READS
Paris: To experience the city like a local, plunge into a public pool.
Onscreen: A summer of women being liberated — from their clothes, mostly.
A.D.H.D.: Receiving a diagnosis for the disorder in adulthood has helped some women manage their money.
Comebacks: His recovery from a horrifying pro football injury didn’t prepare him for watching his daughter deal with a brain tumor.
Metropolitan Diary: A coat worthy of New York.
Lives Lived: Nathan Louis Jackson was an acclaimed playwright who grappled with issues like the death penalty and homophobia. He died at 44.
SPORTS NEWS
Coco Gauff: She defeated Caroline Wozniacki on Sunday, advancing to the U.S. Open quarterfinals.
Surface speed: A super-close-up shows how the U.S. Open courts are built for quicker matches.
College football: Colorado upset the 17th-ranked T.C.U. over the weekend. Sports Illustrated has takeaways from the win.
N.F.L.: The Dallas Cowboys and offensive tackle Terence Steele have agreed to a five-year, nearly $87 million contract extension.
Baseball: Jasson Domínguez and Ronny Mauricio made their Major League debuts.
National pride: In Turkey, women’s volleyball has become a symbol of female empowerment.
ARTS AND IDEAS
Upscale eating: A new type of food celebrity has emerged on TikTok: private chefs for the ultrawealthy. They share day-in-the-life videos from mansion kitchens, where their jobs often pay more and offer far better perks than restaurants.
Still, they know their role is to cook. As Tashea Channell Younge, a private chef and caterer from New York, put it: “You’re not a guest. At all. You’re not their friend. At all.”
More on culture
The British Museum named an interim director while it confronts a crisis over thefts from its storerooms.
Lea Michele ended her yearlong run as the lead in the Broadway revival of “Funny Girl.”
THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …
Brighten a holiday barbecue with cucumber-watermelon salad.
Handle conflict in a healthy way.
Browse Wirecutter’s picks for the REI Labor Day sale.
Plunge a toilet right.
Take our news quiz.
GAMES
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And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections.
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P.S. Happy Labor Day. Read the history of the worker’s holiday.
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