


Malawi’s last presidential election five years ago was seen as a democratic milestone.
Citing significant irregularities at the polls, the nation’s highest court struck down the initial results that had kept the incumbent, Peter Mutharika, in power. The court ordered a historic rerun in 2020 that saw Lazarus Chakwera, an opposition leader, prevail over Mr. Mutharika.
The court’s intervention was hailed as a victory for democracy, not only in the small southern African nation, but also across a continent where leaders often cling to power through corruption.
But now, as Malawians head to the polls for a presidential election on Tuesday, that sense of triumph seems to have evaporated.
Mr. Chakwera has faced criticism for appointing allies to the commission that runs the country’s elections. His opponents in this year’s race, who include Mr. Mutharika, have accused election officials of manipulating the voter registration process to favor Mr. Chakwera, and they have raised concerns about the electronic system that will be used to tally the votes.
Opposition leaders have accused Mr. Chakwera’s party, the Malawi Congress Party, of deploying violent mobs against them. Some analysts believe that the election will again lead to a court battle.
All this is playing out as Malawians watch their economy deteriorate, with rising inflation and widespread poverty.
What are the main issues?
The high cost of living in Malawi has left many citizens disillusioned and unable to afford essential goods. Food and utility costs have shot up. Fuel shortages have led to long lines at gas stations across the country.
The production of tobacco, Malawi’s main cash crop, has decreased, and there has been little diversification of the economy.
More than 70 percent of Malawians live on less than $2.15 per day, according to a 2019 household survey by the World Bank, which has forecast rising poverty and food insecurity in the country of about 22 million.
Mr. Chakwera had promised to create one million jobs in his first year in office, but he has failed to do so.
While the official unemployment rate is low, hovering around 5 percent, experts say that does not account for the high number of people doing informal work.
Young Malawians, who make up the bulk of voters, have been hit the hardest by unemployment. Many are joining a job market that has little to offer.
Only 8 percent of Malawians between the ages of 18 and 35 said they had a job, according to a survey by Afrobarometer, an independent research network. Many skilled youth are voting with their feet, emigrating mostly to South Africa, but also to far-flung countries like Israel, where they work on farms abandoned after the Oct. 7 attacks.
On top of those economic challenges, government corruption has also left many Malawians bitter. Mr. Chakwera came to power promising to address the disappointment with Mr. Mutharika’s administration. Instead, many of those challenges remain under his own presidency.
How does Malawi vote?
Malawians vote directly for the president. In response to the court’s order nullifying the 2019 results, Parliament passed a law that now requires a candidate to get more than 50 percent of the vote in order to win. If no one reaches that mark in the first round of voting, the top two vote getters proceed to a runoff.
Voters will also elect members of Parliament and local ward councilors.
Who is running, and who is likely to win?
Mr. Chakwera, a 70-year-old former pastor, faces an uphill climb because of the country’s economic malaise and his inability to rein in corruption, analysts say.
Many pollsters have suggested Mr. Mutharika, the 85-year-old leader of the Democratic Progressive Party, will make a comeback. The Yale-educated former law professor led the country from 2014 to 2019. Many Malawians credit Mr. Mutharika with lowering inflation and improving public infrastructure during his first term. And Mr. Mutharika is also popular in part because his brother, Bingu wa Mutharika, was a beloved former president of the country.
There are 15 other candidates on the presidential ballot, including former President Joyce Banda, but experts expect the election to come down to a two-way battle between Mr. Chakwera and Mr. Mutharika.
When will we find out the results?
By law, the Malawi Electoral Commission must release the results within eight days of the vote.