Yesterday, President Trump declared that Iran and Israel had reached a cease-fire, bringing an end to what he called “the 12-Day War.” Iran and Israel later confirmed the truce. But it was tenuous: The sides traded fire until the last moments before it went into effect, and Israel said Iranian missiles had killed four people.
Soon after the truce began, sirens again blared in northern Israel. Israel said Iran had launched missiles during the cease-fire, a claim Iran’s military denied. “We will respond with force,” the chief of staff for Israel’s military said. Trump’s announcement, which caught even some of his top officials by surprise, may not be the end of the conflict.
We also don’t know if the war so far has accomplished the primary objective for Israel and the U.S.: to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program. Whether last week’s American strikes actually destroyed their targets remains unclear. And what if Iran tries to rebuild its program?
Today, I want to look at what the war with Iran leaves unresolved.
Four questions
Trump at first claimed that American bombs obliterated Iran’s nuclear program. So far, though, much remains unsettled:
Did the U.S. strikes destroy their targets? American officials say that U.S. bombs and missiles did “severe” damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities. But we still don’t know much about their effect, particularly on Fordo, where Iran enriches uranium. The military had previously claimed that it could wipe out the site with just two bunker-busting bombs; it ultimately dropped a dozen.
Officials may not get answers for days or weeks, if ever. The same trait that makes Fordo so hard to strike — that it’s deep underground — also makes gauging its status difficult.
Does Iran have a secret enrichment facility? Before the U.S. attacks, Iran said that it had built a new enrichment site, its third, “in a secure and invulnerable location.” The facility is possibly under a mountain, similar to Fordo. If it’s up and running with the newest centrifuges, it could enrich uranium for nuclear weapons within months.