Observers of President-elect Donald Trump have long known the folly of trying to predict his decisions. But when it comes to foreign relations, especially in the Middle East, there are some ways that his second term will undoubtedly be different from his first.

The region has changed drastically since Hamas’s Oct. 7 attacks on Israel, which have disrupted the balance of power and the priorities of its major players.

It is impossible to say what’s coming. But my colleagues have conducted extensive reporting on everything that has changed, and this seems like a good moment to draw together some of their findings.

Oct. 7 attacks

Hamas’s attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, was one of those moments that divides history into “before” and “after.” In the attack, Hamas massacred civilians in Israel and took others back to Gaza as hostages. As my colleague Steven Erlanger wrote just two weeks later, the assaults shattered longstanding assumptions about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, ushering in a period of violent uncertainty.

In Trump’s first term and through much of President Biden’s, Palestinian demands for statehood received little attention. Israel controlled the West Bank and contained Gaza so tightly that it seemed that status quo might endure indefinitely.

But Hamas’s attack, and the wars and realignments that followed, have changed everything. The United States is once again deeply involved in the region, where it has provided military support for Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza and against Hezbollah in Lebanon. And widespread anger over the conduct of Israel, which has killed tens of thousands of people and displaced over a million, has brought renewed attention to the issue of Palestinian statehood.