Leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, two former Soviet states, are set to meet with President Trump at the White House on Friday in what he portrayed as an attempt to end their decades-long conflict and to elevate America’s role as a mediator.
In a post on his Truth Social platform, President Trump called the meeting set for Friday afternoon “a Historic Peace Summit.”
He said there would be “an official Peace Signing Ceremony” to be attended by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia and President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan. He also said that he would sign separate bilateral economic cooperation agreements between the United States and each country.
“Many Leaders have tried to end the War, with no success, until now, thanks to ‘TRUMP,’” he said in his post on Friday.
Mr. Trump’s push for a settlement reflects his belief that he can bulldoze his way to diplomatic resolutions to some of the world’s longest and bitterest conflicts. It remained unclear, however, what if any understandings the Friday meeting could produce between the two sworn enemies. Neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan commented publicly on their specific expectations for the meeting.
But Mr. Trump’s effort has highlighted Russia’s diminished influence over both countries as it remains bogged down in its invasion of Ukraine.
The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has shaped the politics of the South Caucasus for decades. Numerous mediators and diplomats have tried to settle it. Tens of thousands of people have died on both sides, and hundreds of thousands displaced.
From 1988 to 1994, and again in 2020, Armenia and Azerbaijan fought wars over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh — Azerbaijan’s sovereign territory where Christian ethnic Armenians and Muslim Azerbaijanis lived alongside each other before conflicts emerged from the decline and collapse of the Soviet Union.
Russia long loomed as the ultimate mediator, and President Vladimir V. Putin regularly convened leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia at the Kremlin. In 2020, the Russian leader brokered a cease-fire that many saw as a diplomatic triumph. Russia deployed 1,960 peacekeepers in the area, giving Moscow a firmer foothold in a strategic region.
But following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Mr. Putin’s attention shifted, and Russia’s influence over the conflict began to wane. Azerbaijan moved decisively in 2023 to take control over the entire Nagorno-Karabakh area, forcing around 100,000 Armenians to leave their homes. In April last year, the Russian peacekeeping contingent began to withdraw as Azerbaijan moved to rebuild in the area in an attempt to erase traces of its Armenian heritage.
Moscow’s relations with Azerbaijan also suffered after Russian air defenses struck an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane that was flying to Grozny, Russia, last December, killing 67 people on board.
Armenia, for its part, has bitter feelings toward Russia, which it felt failed to protect it against Azerbaijan. Armenian officials have threatened to leave the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the post-Soviet security alliance led by Moscow. In March, Armenia’s Parliament passed a bill furthering the country’s ambition to join the European Union.
In recent months, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been trying to broker an agreement for a permanent peace, but the process has been bumpy. They have yet to agree where the border would run between them. Over the past years, Azerbaijan has occupied small areas of Armenia, citing security concerns.
With a more powerful military, and emboldened by increased European demand for its oil and gas, Mr. Aliyev of Azerbaijan has felt he can dictate the terms.
One of his demands has been to change the Armenian constitution to remove all references to Nagorno-Karabakh. Another is to establish a transportation link through Armenia to connect Azerbaijan’s mainland to its landlocked exclave of Nakhichevan. Armenia has been reluctant to commit to the project because concerns over who would control it.