The Manhattan district attorney’s office on Monday is expected to make its recommendation to a judge on whether to imprison Donald J. Trump for his recent felony conviction, a crucial step in the first criminal sentencing of an American president.
The sentence is likely to be the only moment of criminal accountability the four-times indicted former president will face before Election Day, when he hopes to reclaim the White House. Mr. Trump faces up to four years in prison in the Manhattan case but could receive probation. The case ended in May with his conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records — among the lowest level of felonies — related to his cover-up of a sex scandal in the run-up to the 2016 election.
Mr. Trump’s other criminal cases are mired in delay, and on Monday, the Supreme Court provided him substantial immunity from prosecution for official acts he committed as president, a decision that will almost certainly delay his trial in Washington, where he is accused of plotting to subvert the 2020 election.
In the Manhattan case, the district attorney, Alvin L. Bragg, will submit his recommendation to the judge who oversaw the trial, Juan M. Merchan, but it is unclear whether those legal papers will be public. Unlike in federal court, sentencing papers in New York State courts are generally confidential unless the judge authorizes their release. That means the world may not learn of Mr. Bragg’s recommendation until Justice Merchan sentences Mr. Trump on July 11, just days before Mr. Trump is expected to be formally nominated for president at the Republican National Convention.
The judge faces an unprecedented conundrum with equally unprecedented legal and political ramifications. His a decision is sure to alienate broad swaths of the country no matter what it is.
Imprisoning Mr. Trump could exacerbate the nation’s political divisions. Yet if Justice Merchan spares him, it could give the impression that the former president received special treatment. Mr. Trump’s front-runner status in the 2024 presidential campaign further compounds the judge’s dilemma, raising the prospect that his decision could shape the race and its outcome.