The term “horse race” tends to have a negative meaning in politics. People use it to describe an obsession with polls rather than what really matters — issues, policies, an election’s stakes.

Here at The Morning, we believe in focusing on issues. We have written dozens of such newsletters this year, often tied to other Times coverage. We recently started a series called The Stakes, highlighting the huge differences between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. We’re policy nerds, and we are proud of it.

Today, though, I want to explain why the horse race also matters. Politicians and voters who dismiss poll results as superficial risk ignoring political reality — and taking polls seriously can bring enormous benefits. The past few years have been a case study, mostly involving the Democratic Party. Today’s newsletter focuses on three examples.

1. Trump’s 2020 defeat

When the race for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination began, the party’s left flank was ascendant. Trump’s extremism had radicalized many Democrats in the opposite direction. Progressives, especially the college graduates who staff campaigns and think tanks, wanted to decriminalize border crossings, ban fracking, abolish private health insurance and defund the police.

The party’s presidential candidates embraced at least some of these positions, even though they were never broadly popular. And they never became popular, despite the passionate arguments that advocates made. Instead, Democrats seemed to be on the verge of nominating a candidate with unpopular views and helping Trump win re-election.

One major candidate, however, adopted fewer of these positions and still had a moderate image: Joe Biden. Polls showed that he would be a stronger opponent against Trump than other Democrats. Here’s one example, from a Times chart published in late 2019: