After a disappointing second half of 2023 for Ukraine’s war effort, the U.S. and Ukraine don’t fully agree about what to do next. Ukraine’s leaders would prefer to be aggressive and continue trying to retake territory that Russia holds. U.S. officials worry that approach is unrealistic.
But there are also signs of compromise — and potential consensus, as my colleagues have reported. In today’s newsletter, I’ll explain what the coming year could bring.
The big picture: Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, hopes that 2024 will be the year when the U.S. and Europe lose patience with the war and allow him to claim large parts of Ukraine permanently. “Putin is banking on the United States failing to deliver for Ukraine,” President Biden warned at the White House yesterday, while standing beside Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president.
If Russia gains the upper hand, it would be a blow to European democracy and a potential sign that the world has entered a new period of military aggression. Ukraine’s leaders and their allies hope they can prevent further Russian advances and inflict enough damage to make a stalemate seem like Putin’s best outcome.
The military situation
After Russia invaded in February 2022, Putin, and much of the world, expected that his military would quickly march to Kyiv and topple Ukraine’s government. That didn’t happen, but Russia did make significant advances. It now controls almost 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory, including the Crimea peninsula, which it seized in 2014.
The goal of Ukraine’s counteroffensive this past summer was to reclaim enough of that territory to cause Putin to fear that his forces were on the verge of collapse. That didn’t happen either. Ukrainian forces failed to break through Russia’s fortified lines in eastern and southern Ukraine, partly because Russia used drones, often supplied by Iran, to monitor Ukrainian attacks and respond quickly.
It was another example of an old military lesson: Seizing territory in war is far harder than holding it.
Still, Ukrainians did have one meaningful accomplishment in recent months. They battered Russian ships in Crimea. As my colleagues Julian Barnes, Eric Schmitt, David Sanger and T.M. Gibbons-Neff write:
It was, some officials said, a major naval victory by a country without a navy.
Longer-range British Storm Shadow missiles significantly damaged targets in Crimea. On Sept. 22, a hail of Storm Shadow missiles struck the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. Days later, Russia withdrew parts of the fleet from Crimea.
The operations allowed Ukraine to export grain from Odesa and kept some shipping lanes open, a critical victory, but they changed little in the overall course of the war and did not allow Ukraine to retake any territory.
Ukraine’s leaders still hope to reclaim territory in 2024. U.S. officials think that a more realistic aim may be to prevent Russia from making advances while Ukraine rebuilds its battered military — and launches more attacks like those in Crimea. Targets could include arms factories, weapons depots and train lines for moving munitions.
As Julian, Eric, David and T.M. explain, “The goal would be to create enough of a credible threat that Russia might consider engaging in meaningful negotiations at the end of next year or in 2025.”
The political risks
Zelensky spent yesterday in Washington, meeting with Biden and members of Congress, hoping to persuade them to continue sending his country weapons, vehicles, ammunition and other equipment. Without continued U.S. aid, Ukraine could run out of important items next year.
Biden and most Democrats in Congress support the additional aid. Many Republicans do as well but say they will approve it only if the legislation includes measures to reduce the surge of illegal immigration during Biden’s presidency. The bill would also include aid for Israel and Taiwan.
Zelensky’s presence in Washington underscores his fear that American support is fragile. While polls show that most Americans support continued aid to Ukraine, many Republican voters do not. Donald Trump has suggested that if he returned to the White House in January 2025, he might cut off aid and pressure Ukraine to negotiate a settlement. Putin seems to be hoping for such an outcome.
Western Europe’s support is also less than solid. Hungary is poised to veto an E.U. aid package, and Germany’s government is struggling to fund its own pledge. “Some senior European defense officials quietly acknowledge that the weapons and ammunition that Europe is currently sending to the war can’t match what Ukraine is burning through,” my colleague Lara Jakes, who is reporting the story from Europe this week, told me. “That means Ukraine could run out of some weapons early next year if the United States fails to approve the additional aid.”
As Matthew Kaminski writes in Politico, “Putin thinks the West is dissolute and will come apart on its own.”
Many U.S. and European officials, including strong supporters of Ukraine, believe that a negotiated settlement is the only plausible outcome in the end. But there is a big difference between a settlement based on the possibility that Ukraine could collapse and one based on the expectation of a protracted stalemate.
Related: Read more about Putin’s bet for outlasting Ukraine and its allies.
More on Ukraine
Last year, Congress hailed Zelensky as a hero. This year, Republicans told him Ukraine’s challenges were not their focus.
More than $75 billion in cash and equipment: Here’s what the United States has given Ukraine so far, and what it still has to offer.
Russia bombarded Kyiv for the third time in a week. Ukraine said it had shot down all the missiles, but that debris wounded dozens.
A cyberattack on Ukraine’s largest mobile operator interrupted service. Many Ukrainians rely on phone alerts to warn of Russian strikes.
Since the beginning of the war, Russia has lost a staggering number of troops, U.S. intelligence shows.
THE LATEST NEWS
Climate Summit
At COP28, diplomats from nearly 200 countries agreed to transition away from fuels like oil, gas and coal, a first at U.N. climate talks.
Past deals urged countries to cut emissions but avoided mentioning fossil fuels.
The agreement comes during the hottest year in recorded history.
Climate observers worry the Arctic is being left out of international discussions, even as temperatures there rise four times as fast as in the rest of the world.
Israel-Hamas War
Biden warned Israel’s leaders that they were beginning to lose international support for their war.
Israel’s military has begun pumping seawater into some of Hamas’s tunnels, The Wall Street Journal reports.
The U.N. General Assembly voted overwhelmingly in favor of a cease-fire.
Israel recovered the bodies of two hostages in Gaza. Two service members, officials said, were killed in the operation to locate them.
“She gave me hope”: Read about a Thai worker’s friendship with a young Israeli girl while they were in captivity.
Zara took down an ad campaign over criticism that it was insensitive to Gazans. The ads featured mannequins wrapped in white plastic.
Higher Education
Harvard’s board voted to keep Claudine Gay as university president, rejecting calls for her removal over the congressional hearing on antisemitism.
The billionaire investor William Ackman mounted a high-profile battle against Gay on the issue — but long-held personal grievances also played a role.
At the University of Pennsylvania, where the president resigned over her comments at the hearing, the dean of the medical school will fill the role temporarily.
Economy and Business
Consumer prices in November were only 3.1 percent higher than a year ago, another sign that inflation has cooled.
Microsoft agreed to remain neutral if any of its 100,000 U.S. workers seek to unionize.
Google’s loss in an antitrust lawsuit from Epic Games could indicate how it might fare in two bigger cases next year.
International
A judge in South Africa rescinded the president’s recognition of the Zulu king, restarting a fight over the heir to the country’s largest traditional kingdom.
The British Parliament backed Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s plan to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda in a key vote. The proposal still faces several hurdles.
Errant airstrikes by the Nigerian military in its campaign against militants and armed gangs have killed hundreds of civilians.
Other Big Stories
New York’s top court ordered the state to redraw its congressional map. The new map could flip six House seats to Democrats.
A group of prisoners are suing Alabama over its prison labor system, which they called modern-day slavery.
The rise of A.I. chatbots like ChatGPT has not increased cheating in high schools, Stanford researchers found.
A Russian-speaking man is facing a federal charge that he flew from Copenhagen to Los Angeles with no ticket or passport.
Two men shot about 3,600 eagles in Montana in an illegal “killing spree,” prosecutors said.
Opinions
To solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the United States first needs to revive its dialogue with Saudi Arabia and Israel, Thomas Friedman argues.
Many Americans depend on addiction treatment. But the system is riddled with gaps, Jeneen Interlandi writes.
What is antisemitism? Bret Stephens offers a guide.
MORNING READS
Sukeban: A unique form of Japanese women’s wrestling has arrived in the U.S.
Best American dishes: A crab doughnut in Seattle and a brisket taco in San Antonio are among the 23 best meals our colleagues ate this year. Read the full list.
Lives Lived: Andre Braugher was best known for playing stoic police officers on “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” and “Homicide.” Elsewhere, he portrayed Shakespeare’s Henry V and an executive editor of The New York Times. He died at 61.
SPORTS
M.L.B.: The San Francisco Giants signed the Korean star Jung Hoo Lee to a six-year, $113 million contract.
N.F.L.: NBC will leave Al Michaels out of its playoff commentary team.
ARTS AND IDEAS
Enter the Wu-Tang: The Wu-Tang Clan will begin a Las Vegas residency in February — a rarity for a hip-hop group. Though not all of the dates have been announced yet, the first shows will coincide with the Super Bowl, which Las Vegas is hosting for the first time. The goal is “to show that hip-hop can go where any other art form has gone before,” said RZA, the group’s leader.
More on culture
Impressive rapping and baffling melodies: Read Jon Caramanica’s review of Nicki Minaj’s fifth studio album, “Pink Friday 2.”
Spike Lee’s “Bamboozled” and Tim Burton’s “The Nightmare Before Christmas” are among 25 movies selected for preservation this year in the Library of Congress’s National Film Registry.
A stage musical about Paddington, the lovable bear, is set to open in Britain in 2025.
Late night hosts joked about Rudy Giuliani’s defamation trial.
THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …
Use Greek yogurt for a smooth, light cheesecake.
Treat adult acne.
Keep warm with these cold-weather essentials.
GAMES
Here is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangram was enviable.
And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections.
Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David
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