Once New Hampshire primary results begin to arrive starting at 7 p.m. Eastern Standard Time tonight, The Times will start publishing a live estimate of the final result, better known as the Needle.

How to watch the Needle tonight

Our results pages feature graphics designed to help you understand how each candidate is faring.

The hypothetical chart below shows how our live estimates work. Our best estimate for each candidate’s final vote share is shown along with a range of estimates for where things might end up.

And our results pages also include county-by-county maps showing where votes remain to be counted and which candidate our model thinks stands to benefit from that outstanding vote.

Last week, we published estimates for the Iowa caucus, which featured a look at an area of unusual interest: who was likeliest to take second place. This time around, now that Ron DeSantis has dropped out of the race, we are producing individual estimates only for Donald Trump and Nikki Haley.

How the Needle works

The fundamentals behind the Needle are surprisingly simple. In a way, it considers two big questions: Where is the vote that remains to be counted, and which candidate is faring better than expected?