The U.S. election is a nail-biter, and the world is anything but calm. Yet the stock market has been remarkably tranquil.

The market’s uncanny ability to overlook the uncertain political outlook in the United States may reflect an assumption that national elections don’t really matter for the stock market — a supposition borne out by stock returns over more than a century.

Yet while the stock market has mainly been upbeat since the summer, fixed-income markets are sending out worrying signals.

Interest rates in the bond market have soared since the Federal Reserve began cutting the short-term rates it controls on Sept. 18. Oddly, economic conditions in the United States have probably been tightening, even though the Fed has started trying to loosen them. And in an apparent sign that fixed-income markets are fretting about the swelling U.S. government debt burden, the cost of insuring the debt has risen sharply since September — to levels vastly higher than those for other major countries.

So there’s a lot going on as the election approaches. Here’s a quick breakdown of the biggest issues facing investors, what the markets are telling us now about the election and why owning some safe investments makes sense, even if the bull market in stocks keeps powering along.

Stock Returns

The stock market gets most of the attention, and for good reason. It has generally been wonderful for investors — this year, over the last decade and, really, for much longer than that. Elections haven’t made much of a difference.