


Halfway through an Atlantic hurricane season that forecasters expected would be one of the most active on record, there has been a considerable interlude in storms during what is typically the busiest portion of the season, leaving observers to wonder if the forecast was a bust — or if the worst may be yet to come.
Often, at this time of the year, it isn’t uncommon to see two, three or even four named storms occurring simultaneously. But on Wednesday there were no current storms, and there hasn’t been one since Hurricane Ernesto formed, beginning as a tropical storm, on Aug. 12. A quiet spell this significant has not been seen during this part of the season since 1968, according to Phil Klotzbach, a researcher of hurricane activity at Colorado State University.
Dr. Klotzbach — whose team predicted in April that there would be 23 named storms this year — joked that when the season ends in November, he may be eating crow for dinner. He won’t be alone at the table: More than two dozen private, academic and government metrological institutions, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, also predicted a hyperactive season.
At the beginning of last month, all signs still pointed to a thriving, above-average season after a strong start with four other named storms before Ernesto. In late June and early July, Hurricane Beryl had broken records as a Category 5 storm as it spun across the Caribbean Sea, thrashing islands with wind and rain.
The first weeks of August had consistent storms, including Debby, which brought a deluge of rain to Florida and the Carolinas. Then, activity halted. And while on Wednesday there were four areas of concern across the sea from North America to Africa — areas that may or may not develop into named storms — the forecast will most likely remain below average for the next two weeks.
Despite the reprieve in recent weeks, though, “it is too early to dismiss the seasonal hurricane outlook as a bust,” said Dan Harnos, a meteorologist at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. “The typical peak of the season is not until Sept. 10, while more hurricane activity historically occurs following the peak than prior to it.”