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
Financial markets have survived a series of rapid-fire miniature crises lately. What’s remarkable is that the Federal Reserve hasn’t yet needed to get involved in any of them.
Enjoy the calm while it lasts.
I think it’s a good bet that what we are seeing is a rare moment of peace for the Fed, an illusion of tranquillity that isn’t likely to last amid the disruptions, dislocations and presidential bluster testing the markets and the economy.
After several years of dominating the markets by sharply raising interest rates to combat inflation — and then gradually reducing them as the rate of price increases ebbed — the Fed did essentially nothing at its latest meeting, just as nearly everybody expected.
Consider that the stock, commodity and bond markets have wobbled lately over a range of profound issues including the appropriate value and cost of artificial intelligence, President Trump’s tariff threats and the beginning of mass deportations. But so far at least, the markets haven’t swerved too much, major financial damage has been contained, inflation and the labor market have stayed stable, and the Fed has been able to sit on the sidelines.
The Fed right now is like a powerful player on a major sports team being held comfortably in reserve. But rest assured, its time is coming.
Eerily Quiet
On Wednesday, the Fed said that aside from the inflation and labor market data it always scrutinizes, it was also studying the rapid stream of policy pronouncements coming out of the Trump administration.