No matter who won the presidential election, the war in Ukraine was likely to end next year. Both Ukraine and Russia are running out of troops and struggling to call up more young men for the front lines. That reality always meant that 2025 would be a year of negotiations.

Donald Trump’s victory will hasten those peace talks. During the campaign, Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine even before his inauguration. Maybe that was a bit of exaggeration. But it’s clear he wants negotiations to begin soon.

That’s bad news for Ukraine. Russian forces are advancing in the east. They’ve also reclaimed some of the Russian territory that Ukraine captured this past summer. Ukraine still has weapons, but its troops are spread thin. Intelligence agencies think it will run out of soldiers soon.

In today’s newsletter, I will look at four questions that will shape the conflict next year — and how Trump’s victory affects them.

1. Can Ukraine keep fighting?

Ukrainian officials insist they are ready to keep fighting. But Republicans are loath to approve more aid for Ukraine, and Kyiv knows that without substantially more aid combat will end soon.