President Trump made big promises with his China tariffs: China needs us more than we need it. America can outlast China in a trade war. Those advantages will let the administration get big concessions and rebalance global commerce.

Trump’s actions, however, suggest the talk was bluster. Yesterday, his administration cut its China tariffs from 145 percent to 30 percent for at least a few months. China will reciprocate by lowering its retaliatory levies from 125 percent to 10 percent. Both sides will keep talking.

But China made no concessions. By now, most of us are familiar with this pattern: Trump makes big claims about what his tariffs can get, only for him to later back down without the other country giving up anything meaningful. It happened with Mexico, Canada and most of Trump’s “Liberation Day” levies. Despite his claims, America seems to need other countries’ trade as much as they need ours, diminishing Trump’s negotiating position. Today’s newsletter explains.

Price hikes and shortages

Here’s the problem: Trade is mutually beneficial. The buyer gets a good, and the seller makes a profit. The United States runs a trade deficit with China — it buys more than it sells — because Americans have the cash and want what China is selling.

Trump’s tariffs on China were so high that they were effectively an embargo that threatened to end all of those mutually beneficial transactions. That would cover a lot of goods — more than 70 percent of smartphones, laptops and toys — as well as manufacturing materials, particularly rare earth metals used in modern electronics. Retailers warned that prices would rise and shelves would go empty. Markets tumbled.