


Inflation is expected to have ticked up slightly on an annual basis in October, the latest evidence that while cost increases are coming under control, they are not entirely vanquished.
The Consumer Price Index, set for release on Wednesday, probably climbed 2.6 percent from a year earlier, higher than September’s 2.4 percent. And after food and fuel prices are stripped out to give a better sense of the underlying inflation trend, economists forecast that “core” inflation probably held steady at 3.3 percent.
On a monthly basis, both the overall and core price measures are expected to have climbed at a moderate pace, one that matches the increase from August to September.
While inflation is much slower than the 9.1 percent pace it reached in mid-2022, it remains quicker than it was in the years leading up to the pandemic. Wednesday’s report is likely to serve as a reminder that while the Federal Reserve has made considerable progress in wrestling price increases back under control, the central bank’s job is not done.
Fed officials are responsible for maintaining low and stable inflation and full employment. They raised interest rates sharply in 2022 and 2023 to try to slow the economy and pull rapid price increases under control. They began cutting rates this year as inflation slowed, lowering borrowing costs in September and at their meeting this month. Interest rates are now set to a range of 4.5 to 4.75 percent.
But officials have been careful not to declare victory — especially when many American consumers are still feeling pain from elevated prices. The slowdown in inflation means that prices are no longer climbing as quickly, but they are still noticeably higher than they were just a few years ago.