There’s rarely a perfect time to be a pollster, but on Sunday afternoon, as my latest national survey of voters was wrapping up, President Biden announced that he was withdrawing from the 2024 race and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris.
I’m sure I’m not the only pollster who was in the field, trying to measure the impact of the events of just the previous several days: the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, the selection of JD Vance as Mr. Trump’s running mate, the president coming down with Covid, the entire Republican National Convention.
Suddenly, the 2024 race has been turned on its head. And to get a full read on the effect of the change-up at the top of the Democratic ticket, we’ll need two things:
Clarity on the “who”: Democratic leaders seem to be coalescing quickly around Ms. Harris, and Democratic voters, so far, seem to be largely OK with this, though some may still pine for an alternative or a more deliberative process.
Time: The idea of Ms. Harris as the presumptive Democratic nominee will take a few days to ripple through the public consciousness. Even then, it will take a few days for pollsters to go back out, ask people their views and then crunch the numbers.
We’ll get clarity on those things in the next week or so. But I think we can already start assessing what new challenges and opportunities Democrats have by moving on from Mr. Biden to an alternative candidate, particularly Ms. Harris; and since she’s the likely nominee — and Republicans are already rewriting at least parts of their playbook with her in mind — let’s assess her and the political landscape.
The Upsides of Ms. Harris
Voters aren’t looking for instability. Handing the reins quickly to Ms. Harris has already drawn howls of unfairness from Republicans, but it likely won’t fracture Democrats, who want to bear down and focus on beating Mr. Trump. Plus, in Ms. Harris, they’ll have a nominee who clears the low bar that many voters feared Mr. Biden couldn’t: “Will be able to serve for four years.”
Ms. Harris could give the “double haters” what they wanted. A quarter of voters are “double haters” — those who were seemingly begging the two major parties to give them choices other than Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden. Now, one party has answered the call, and one question becomes: Is Ms. Harris that longed-for alternative, or is she seen as simply a continuation of the much-maligned Biden candidacy? Early indications are that she gets a two-point bump relative to Mr. Biden among these voters.
Ms. Harris will drive abortion messaging more sharply. During the June debate, when asked about the overturning of Roe v. Wade, Mr. Biden’s answer was meandering. Abortion, though, is one of the few issues where voters consistently say they trust Democrats more than Republicans, and Ms. Harris has already indicated that she’ll make this issue a centerpiece of her message.
Against Ms. Harris, Republicans could fall into the “very online” trap. It’s hard to overstate the extent to which Republicans view Ms. Harris as unappealing. If you only learn about her from conservative media, you’re most likely steeped in “unburdened by what has been” video montages and criticism of her laugh. Assume this is how most voters think of her — or that they will care about this slight awkwardness — at your own risk.