Here’s one way to think through the importance of the news stories that flood our lives: Which ones will historians still be talking about in 50 years? Are there any that they’ll be talking about in 100?
The answer is yes. Without question, historians will be discussing the Russia-Ukraine war even 100 years from now. It’s a bloody slugfest between two advanced nations in Europe that has immense strategic implications for the United States (and the world). It’s a struggle that’s changing the nature of warfare — with its mass use of drones and other new technologies — and it could alter the global balance of power, especially if Western will fails and Russia overwhelms Ukraine.
And right now, after months of bleak and dispiriting news from the front, Ukraine has taken the initiative. A substantial Ukrainian force achieved surprise and penetrated the Russian border near Kursk, a region that was the site of one of the most significant battles of World War II. That clash cost an estimated million combined casualties and permanently handed the strategic initiative to the Soviet Red Army.
This battle of Kursk is much, much smaller. Thousands of Ukrainian troops have advanced miles deep into Russian territory. The headlines are thrilling, and social media is filled with footage of Ukraine’s assault, so I wanted to take a closer look.
How significant is the Ukrainian attack, really? Is it a potentially decisive blow that could change the course of the war in Ukraine’s favor, or is it a gamble that will ultimately cost Ukraine dearly? What is the real situation on the ground? To try to answer these and other questions, I talked to a number of military analysts, and their conclusions (with some slight variations) were remarkably similar.
Here are my key takeaways from those conversations.
Don’t call Ukraine’s attack an “invasion.” Russia’s attacks into Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 were true invasions, decisions to seize, hold and even annex Ukrainian territory. Ukraine has no permanent designs on sovereign Russian territory.