Generation Z is poised to flex its growing political muscle in the 2024 presidential election, and in my surveys and focus groups with these voters, I’m seeing the strong potential for a turning point in American political alignment. Unlike other recent Republican presidential nominees, Donald Trump is making young men a central focus of his campaign. If effective, his effort could peel enough away from the Democratic Party to transform the country’s electoral math for years to come.
Recent data from the Harvard Youth Poll, a national survey I oversee for the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, reveals an increasing political rift between young men and women under 30, two groups critical to Democrats’ success in recent elections. Almost exactly equal shares of young men and young women say they will definitely vote in this election or have already done so. But since the spring of 2020, the share of young men identifying as registered Democrats has dropped by seven percentage points, while those identifying as Republicans have increased by seven points — a net shift of 14 points in just four years. Young women, during the same period, shifted two points away from the Republicans.
Take one young Pittsburgh man I met in a recent focus group. A college graduate working part-time as a bartender, he felt weighed down by hopelessness, adrift in a country where rising costs, stagnant wages and lack of affordable housing have made even the modest ambitions of other generations feel out of reach for him. “Hope is great,” he told me, “but I see nothing for the future.”
The young man’s experience reflects a broader crisis of confidence and purpose, rooted in economic insecurity and social disconnection. The Covid pandemic exacerbated the alienation, with many first-time voters spending thousands of hours isolated and online in their formative years.
While these struggles affect the whole country, they weigh especially on young men of all educational, racial and ethnic backgrounds. Nearly three-quarters of Gen Z men report feeling regularly stressed by an uncertain future, stirring painful memories of the Great Recession they witnessed as children. These feelings erode self-esteem and diminish their interest in personal relationships and long-term planning, leading many to describe their future as “bleak,” “unclear” and “scary.”
Today’s young men are lonelier than ever and have inherited a world rife with skepticism toward the institutions designed to promote and defend American ideals. Men under 30 are nearly twice as likely to be single as women their same age; Gen Z men are less likely to enroll in college or the work force than previous generations. They have higher rates of suicide and are less likely than their female peers to receive treatment for mental health maladies. Most young men in my polling say they fear for our country’s future, and nearly half doubt their cohort’s ability to meet our nation’s coming challenges.