President Trump has not scared the Russian elite. Last week, he declared himself “disappointed” with Vladimir Putin and imposed a shorter deadline — expiring this Friday — for an end to the war in Ukraine, threatening severe economic punishment if it was missed. In Moscow, no one took it seriously. After weathering more than three years of sanctions, the Kremlin believes it can handle anything thrown at it — that’s if Mr. Trump even follows through, which many in Moscow doubt.
But there’s a deeper reason for the dismissive response. Mr. Putin has, according to Kremlin insiders I talked to, concluded that negotiating with the United States makes no sense and that compromise is pointless. Hostility, not friendship, is the policy. The imminent visit to Moscow of America’s envoy for peace missions, Steve Witkoff, won’t change that. Mr. Trump may have soured on Mr. Putin, but Russia’s president couldn’t care less.
Six months ago, things were very different. When Mr. Trump returned to the presidency, many in Moscow hoped that a thaw in U.S.-Russia relations might be possible. Along with friendly public remarks from both presidents and negotiations in Saudi Arabia, there were other encouraging signs of détente. Russian propagandists refrained from criticizing the new American administration or Mr. Trump personally, apparently under orders from the Kremlin. (President Emmanuel Macron of France became the main target of attacks instead.)
Soon, American businessmen began showing up in Moscow, calling themselves sponsors of Mr. Trump’s campaign. They claimed that sanctions would be lifted and even that the president still dreamed of building a Trump Tower in Moscow. The Russian officials and entrepreneurs I spoke to were wary, but they wanted to believe that peace was possible and that Mr. Trump might persuade Mr. Putin to end the war. It seemed as if the dream of renewed cooperation with America might come true.
It quickly became clear that this was wishful thinking. Everyone now realizes that Mr. Putin has no desire to end the war, which remains his main tool for controlling society. Worse, he has lost faith in the very idea of reaching agreements with the United States. According to the people I talked to, his view is that any American administration, by definition, is temporary — and so any deal with it is meaningless. Mr. Trump is in charge today, but in three years he might not be. Personal rapport means nothing. To Mr. Putin, it is no longer possible to build a working relationship with America.
Kremlin propagandists sense the honeymoon is coming to an end. They’re still avoiding direct attacks on Mr. Trump himself, but they’re going after those around him. Senator Lindsey Graham, in particular, has been singled out as a “Russophobic” extremist, especially after he suggested that Mr. Putin should “call the Ayatollah” to ask what would happen on Day 51 after Mr. Trump’s first ultimatum. On a recent episode of the flagship political talk show on the state-owned Russia-1, the host shouted into the camera: “What are you croaking about? You’ll be destroyed along with your America, and no one will even remember your name.”
This disdainful attitude has defined the response to Mr. Trump’s latest salvo. The prospect of sanctions and tariffs on both Russia and those who do business with it doesn’t appear to frighten the Russian elite. Its members simply don’t believe it will happen. Any real restrictions, they argue, would lead to a spike in global oil prices, and that would mean higher gasoline prices in the United States and significant political blowback. In the Kremlin’s view, Mr. Trump would never risk that.
Business leaders, too, think it’s little more than a bluff. If America were to impose secondary sanctions on countries that continue to buy Russian oil and gas, the first targets would have to be China, India and Turkey. Mr. Trump has shown an appetite for trade wars, even with allies, and has promised to penalize India with extra tariffs. But would he really be willing to gravely jeopardize relations with India and Turkey just to punish Russia? And as for China, many believe the conflict with Washington has already reached a point where no further escalation is possible — America has no additional leverage left.
It’s telling that Mr. Putin has not responded directly to Mr. Trump’s threats. Instead, Dmitri Medvedev, the former president and the deputy chairman of the Russian security council, leads the charge. “Every new ultimatum is a threat and a step toward war — not between Russia and Ukraine, but with your own country,” he wrote on X, admonishing Mr. Trump. Once a serious politician, Mr. Medvedev is now mainly known for his inflammatory comments. It’s his job to regularly threaten nuclear strikes, and he did so again last week, prompting Mr. Trump to announce that he had moved two nuclear submarines to “be positioned in the appropriate regions.”
The Kremlin hasn’t forgotten Mr. Trump reportedly asking Volodymyr Zelensky whether Ukraine could strike Moscow or St. Petersburg. But Moscow is convinced that Westerners remain far more afraid of Russian nuclear threats than Russians are of hypothetical West-supported strikes. The reason is simple: In the West, public opinion would never accept the civilian casualties from an attack. In Russia, public opinion no longer matters; in fact, it hasn’t existed in any real sense for years. That’s why the Kremlin found it amusing when the White House press secretary, Christine Leavitt, rushed to deny any possibility of U.S.-backed strikes on Moscow.
This derisive attitude betrays how disconnected — and even delusional — Russia’s ruling elite has become. The situation inside Russia is far from stable. The country has been experiencing a near-continuous aviation crisis throughout the summer as flights are routinely disrupted by drone attacks. Major businesses are struggling under crushingly high interest rates. The Central Bank of Russia is forecasting scant economic growth, investment levels are low, and the country is expecting a poor harvest. All is not well.
And yet Russia’s rulers cling to the belief that nothing can harm them. After all, they reason, the country has spent the past three years learning how to live in isolation. It’s possible they’re right about Mr. Trump and that his bark is worse than his bite. But drunk on propaganda, oblivious to the risks ahead, they may soon find they are in for a nasty shock.
Mikhail Zygar (@zygaro) is a former editor in chief of the independent news channel TV Rain and the author of “War and Punishment: Putin, Zelensky and the Path to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine” and the newsletter The Last Pioneer.
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