President Trump seems to have it in for Latin America. Not since the darkest days of the Cold War has Washington pursued a policy of such hostility toward its southern neighbors. Yet one country has emerged as a special target of Mr. Trump’s ire: Brazil. In July, he threatened 50 percent tariffs unless the authorities there halted the prosecution of the former president Jair Bolsonaro, accused of plotting against democracy after his 2022 defeat, and overturned a Supreme Court ruling on social media content.

The country’s current president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, flatly refused. Instead, full of righteous indignation, he seized the nationalist mantle and cast himself as the defender of Brazilian sovereignty against Washington’s heavy hand. “At no point,” he told The Times, “will Brazil negotiate as if it were a small country up against a big country.” The eye-watering tariffs were duly imposed, though some exemptions softened the blow. Yet Mr. Lula’s refusal to be bullied and insistence that Brazil play an independent role on the world stage has brought him a bump in support at home.

He’s going to need it. Next year, at age 80, he will seek an unprecedented fourth term when Brazilians go to the polls. The election will not merely decide the fate of the government or Mr. Lula’s legacy. It will determine whether Brazil, the world’s fourth-largest democracy, will join the authoritarian chorus reverberating across the Western Hemisphere. For Mr. Lula and his country, the stakes could not be higher. The Brazilian president may have faced down Mr. Trump, but his biggest challenge is still to come.

For much of his third term Mr. Lula has struggled with middling poll numbers. Despite low unemployment, inflation has been a nagging issue. There has also been a feeling among a considerable slice of the electorate that his foreign policy priorities, such as an early attempt to broker a settlement between Russia and Ukraine, as well as his trenchant criticism of the Israeli government, were quixotic and unproductive.

But things are looking up. A majority approve of his conduct on the world stage, and many back his handling of the spat with Mr. Trump. Recent polls also show him beating every tested matchup for 2026, including the São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas, a Bolsonarist die-hard seen as Mr. Lula’s most formidable challenger. The public mood, too, has shifted: More Brazilians say they fear a comeback for Mr. Bolsonaro than worry about Mr. Lula staying in power.

The president is now less a fading incumbent than a resilient front-runner. Improving consumer confidence explains some of it, but the broader political picture is just as important. With Mr. Bolsonaro barred from office until 2030, his son relocated to the United States to lobby the White House full-time. His efforts appear to have paid off. But the Trump administration’s attempt to cow Brazil into dropping charges that may imminently lead to a lengthy prison sentence for Mr. Bolsonaro has backfired. Despite the Bolsonaro family’s endeavors to blame Mr. Lula, more Brazilians fault them for Mr. Trump’s costly tariffs.