President Trump inherited an economy in excellent health, and the predictions that he would quickly cause a recession were wishcasting rather than forecasting.

But Trump has been doing his level best to disrupt the American economy, and in the latest batches of economic data, there are signs that he is having an impact.

Trump’s big economic idea, of course, is to reduce the amount of stuff that Americans buy from the rest of the world by imposing hefty tariffs, or taxes, on imports. Trump himself has acknowledged that this will cause some short-term pain, but he says that it will be worthwhile because it will produce a boom in domestic manufacturing.

So far, Americans are experiencing some costs but not the purported benefits.

Over the last three months, after revisions, the American economy added about 106,000 jobs — or less than a third of what is needed to keep pace with population growth. It’s the weakest three-month stretch since 2020, and there’s even more reason for worry in the details. While the unemployment rate remains low, at 4.2 percent, that is because a growing share of Americans aren’t even trying to find jobs. If the share of adults either working or looking had held steady over the last three months, the unemployment rate would be at almost 5 percent.

The latest jobs data includes a sharp downward revision in estimated job growth in May and June as well as a relatively weak number for July, underscoring that predicting economic trends is a perilous business. We’re only beginning to get a clear picture of the first half of this year, let alone what’s going to happen next.

But wobbly job growth isn’t the only sign of increasing stress. Overall economic growth appears to have slowed in the second quarter and there are signs that tariffs are beginning to bite. The latest inflation readings, for June, showed that prices are rising a little more quickly. Consumers, the engine of the economy, are still spending, but at a slower pace than last year.

And what of Trump’s new economy? Well, that’s the worst news of all: Friday’s jobs report showed that manufacturing employment declined for the third straight month.