The main political argument in the 20th century was over the size of government. On the left, people tried to use government to reduce inequality and offer an economic safety net. On the right, people tried to reduce taxes and regulations to boost growth and social dynamism.
That era is clearly over. Donald Trump is a big-government populist who has destroyed small government conservatism. He’s using state power to adopt a mercantilist tariff policy that redirects global trade flows. He’s using industrial policy to pick economic winners and losers. He’s using state power to micromanage key universities. The Trump Defense Department just spent $400 million to become that largest shareholder of a private rare-earth elements company. Trump got himself a “golden share” of U.S. Steel, giving the president sweeping powers over a private company’s business decisions.
Nearly 45 years ago, Ronald Reagan said in his first inaugural, “In the present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem.” That seems like an ice age ago. Now we have an administration that’s all about concentrated executive power and relentless federal action.
How did the Republicans move so far, so fast?
Well, the 20th-century argument over the role of government happened at a time when people basically thought America was working. When society seems stable, the individual is seen as the primary political reality: How can we support individuals so they can rise and prosper — a tax cut here, a new social program there.
But today, most people think America is broken. According to recent surveys, public trust in institutions is near its historical low. According to a recent Ipsos survey, about two-thirds of Americans agree with the statement, “Society is broken.”
As David Frum pointed out recently in The Atlantic, between 1983 and 2007, the share of Americans who were satisfied with “the way things are going in the U.S.” hit peaks of about 70 percent and was often above 50 percent. Over the 15 years from 2007 to 2022, the number of Americans who were satisfied with the way things were going was frequently down to about 25 percent.