Donald Trump got lucky in his first term. When he arrived, inflation was low, unemployment was falling and growth was steady. He applied a bit of juice via his large regressive tax cut, and the economy accelerated without triggering inflation. In retrospect, his term was a bit like a speeding car that got away with it.

This time, he may not be so fortunate.

On the surface, the economy is doing fine, much like it was before Mr. Trump’s first term. But underneath that shiny exterior lurk significant weaknesses, troubles that were well perceived by voters — if perhaps sometimes subconsciously — and played a major role in Kamala Harris’s defeat.

It’s becoming increasingly apparent that the fruits of the economy’s steady expansion are not reaching most Americans. A growing share of our overall prosperity continues to accrue to the wealthy and to corporate shareholders (as evidenced in part by the extraordinary upward march of stock prices).

On the other end: the young and people who didn’t attend college — including white, working-class men who voted for Mr. Trump in large numbers. For many, the American dream increasingly feels like a mirage.

Start with people who didn’t attend college. While median earnings for all Americans have risen modestly (after adjusting for inflation) over the past 45 years, pay for men with only a high school education has fallen to $1,006 per week before Covid from $1,293 in 1979. A machinist went from earning roughly an average wage to an income more than 20 percent below that of a typical American. Some of these workers have been forced into lower-paying jobs or have never worked since. Others have even ended up suffering a “death of despair” such as suicide or overdose.