New York City is expected to welcome 400,000 fewer tourists this year than it did in 2024, a decline primarily driven by negative sentiment toward the United States among foreign travelers who have reconsidered their vacations.

The city’s tourism agency, New York City Tourism and Conventions, had entered 2025 with optimism after the coronavirus pandemic disrupted travel five years ago and had projected a full recovery this year with a record number of visitors.

But the agency has now twice revised downward its initial forecast of 67.6 million visitors — international and domestic — since President Trump declared a trade war on allies, mused about annexing other countries and ramped up an immigration crackdown that has resulted in the detentions of several foreign tourists.

The latest forecast, which will be released on Thursday, now estimates that 64.1 million tourists will visit the city. That includes 400,000 more domestic travelers than last year, but 800,000 fewer foreign travelers.

The new forecast sees 12.1 million international travelers, a 17 percent drop from earlier 2025 projections. The decline has been led by a drop-off in tourists from Canada, who have boycotted trips to the United States over Mr. Trump’s threat of making their country the 51st U.S. state.

International travel to the United States from other parts of the world has largely held up so far, but New York City relies on Canadian tourists. Travel analysts fear that continued economic uncertainty could scramble travel plans from the rest of the world.